The greenhouse effect is a global warming (GW) phenomenon caused by human activities. Therefore, it has become a global concern to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and control climate warming. This article aims to study howto analyze and study the impact of ET (Energy Transformation) on China's greenhouse effect based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regulation on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, and to comb the current situation and trends of carbon emissions (for the convenience of the following text, carbon emission is abbreviated as CE) in China. The focus of this study is on the impact of China's ET on the greenhouse effect, which is to study whether the ET can effectively reduce the intensity of the greenhouse effect and the rate of temperature rise in China with the existing energy structure and industrial structure unchanged. This article analyzed the scale and intensity of China's CEs from 1995 to 2020, and understood that during the period 2003-2012, China's CEs grew very rapidly. In 2020, China's CEs reached 10.273 billion tons. In addition, through the analysis of CEs prediction under three different scenarios, this article found that under the baseline scenario, China's future CEs scale would continue to grow. Under the planning scenario, it was expected that the CE scale would reach 137,541 million tons and 143,817 million tons respectively in 2030 and 2060. Under the regulatory scenario, it would reach a peak in 2030 and then show a downward trend. In 2050, the scale of CEs would begin to maintain a balance, and under the regulatory scenario, the greenhouse effect would also be significantly reduced.
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2023-02-10
PAPER REVISED: 2023-03-15
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2023-04-20
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2023-05-13
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