THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Authors of this Paper

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Zhiming Hu

,

Tao Jiang

,

Wenjin Zuo

,

Qiang Hu

PREDICTING CHINA'S ELDERLY POPULATION USING A FRACTIONAL GRAY PREDICTION MODEL

ABSTRACT
China's aging population is becoming more and more serious, which has a far-reaching influence on the state and society. As the more elderly population grows, it is necessary to strengthen a sound policy system to alleviate the burden on families and society. The importance of accurately predicting the elderly population is therefore highlighted. With the aim of exploring the future development trend of China's older population, in this paper, we establish a new fractional gray prediction model based on time power term to study China's elderly population. We used data from 2010 to 2019 to assess modeling accuracy, demonstrating that the model outperforms the other models. The final step is to use the model to forecast China's elderly population from 2020 to 2029.
KEYWORDS
grey system theory, China’s elderly population, FGM(1, 1, tα) model, Simpson formula, fractional order accumulation
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2022-11-01
PAPER REVISED: 2023-05-23
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2023-05-25
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2024-05-18
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI2403305H
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2024, VOLUME 28, ISSUE Issue 3, PAGES [2305 - 2314]
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Predicting China's elderly population using a fractional gray prediction model

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence