THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

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Li-Jun Sun

,

Hai-Bin Li

,

Xi-Qin Yuan

,

Zai-Zai Yan

BIVARIATE AND TWO-PHASE DEGRADATION MODELING AND RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WITH RANDOM EFFECTS

ABSTRACT
The paper aims at predicting the remaining useful life of highly reliable and long-life products with multiple and multi-stage characteristics in the degradation process. Considering the unit-to-unit variability among the product units, a new bivariate and two-phase Wiener process model with random effects is established. Schwarz Information Criterion is used to identify the change points of the degradation model, and the analytical expressions of life and remaining useful life are given by the concept of first hitting time. Furthermore, the appropriate Copula function is selected to describe the correlation between the two quality characteristics based on Akaike Information Criterion. A bivariate degradation model is established and the unknown parameters of the model are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the comparative analysis of turbine engine.
KEYWORDS
two-phase Wiener process, bivariate Wiener process, remaining useful life estimation
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2022-11-26
PAPER REVISED: 2023-05-02
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2023-05-19
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2024-05-18
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI2403295S
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2024, VOLUME 28, ISSUE Issue 3, PAGES [2295 - 2304]
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Bivariate and two-phase degradation modeling and reliability analysis with random effects

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence