The greenhouse effect is a global warming phenomenon caused by human activities. Therefore, it has become a global concern to reduce GHG emissions and control climate warming. This article aims to study how to analyze and study the impact of energy transformation (ET) on China’s greenhouse effect based on the stochastic impacts by regulation on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, and to comb the current situation and trends of carbon emissions (CE) in China. The focus of this study is on the impact of China’s ET on the greenhouse effect, which is to study whether the ET can effectively reduce the intensity of the greenhouse effect and the rate of temperature rise in China with the existing energy structure and industrial structure unchanged. This article analyzed the scale and intensity of China’s CE from 1995 to 2020, and understood that during the period 2003-2012, China’s CE grew very rapidly. In 2020, China’s CE reached 10.273 billion tons. In addition, through the analysis of CE prediction under three different scenarios, this article found that under the baseline scenario, China’s future CE scale would continue to grow. Under the planning scenario, it was expected that the CE scale would reach 137541 million tons and 143817 million tons respectively in 2030 and 2060. Under the regulatory scenario, it would reach a peak in 2030 and then show a downward trend. In 2050, the scale of CE would begin to maintain a balance, and under the regulatory scenario, the greenhouse effect would also be significantly reduced.