THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Milan M. Radovanović

,

Yaroslav Vyklyuk

,

Milan Milenković

,

Darko B. Vuković

,

Nataliya Matsiuk

APPLICATION OF ADAPTIVE NEURO-FUZZY INTERFERENCE SYSTEM MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF FOREST FIRES IN THE USA ON THE BASIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY

ABSTRACT
In this research we search for a functional dependence between the occurrence of forest fires in the USA and the factors which characterize the solar activity. For this purpose we used several methods (R/S analysis, Hurst index) to establish potential links between the influx of some parameters from the sun and the occurrence of forest fires with lag of several days. We found evidence for a connection and developed a prognostic scenario based on the Adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) technique. This scenario allows the prediction between 79-93% of forest fires. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007]
KEYWORDS
forest fires, heliocentric hypothesis, Hurst index, ANFIS models, USA
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2015-02-10
PAPER REVISED: 2015-04-20
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2015-06-26
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2015-07-03
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI150210093R
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Issue 5, PAGES [1649 - 1661]
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Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system models for prediction of forest fires in the usa on the basis of solar activity

2025 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence