THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Ilija R. Batas Bjelić

,

Nikola Rajaković

,

Boris Ćosić

,

Neven Duić

A REALISTIC EU VISION OF A LIGNITE-BASED ENERGY SYSTEM IN TRANSITION: CASE STUDY OF SERBIA

ABSTRACT
Several Contracting Parties to the Treaty establishing the Energy Community of the South East Europe, currently in energy transition, have electricity production dominantly based on lignite which contrasts their new reality. Planning approach to designing a new feasible energy policy is presented in this paper. This novel approach in using EnergyPLAN tool stems from analysis of market operation of lignite thermal power plants on hourly basis, and quantification of the feasibility of the energy policy and its alignment with EU vision, and is presented in few scenarios. It was found out that the Serbian energy system is highly sensitive to the electricity market and CO2 tax increase, because the marginal costs for lignite generation will increase to more than 50€/MWh. Shifting in the merit order will be observed even at lower CO2 tax levels, because of the intensity of the emission of the electricity sector (calculated to be higher than 700gCO2/kWhel, according to current energy policy). Based on the increased use of renewable energy sources and more efficient energy conversion technologies, socio-economic and energy policy feasibility would be increased, while long-term marginal costs would be improved by 2€/MWh and emission intensity by 258 gCO2/kWhel, compared to the current energy policy. These contributions, shown in the Serbian case, are of general importance for other lignite dominated Contracting Parties to Treaty establishing the Energy Community. [Projekat Ministartsva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 42009]
KEYWORDS
lignite, national energy system, energy transition, Europe 202020 goals, simulation model, CO2 tax
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2014-06-13
PAPER REVISED: 2014-08-15
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2014-08-17
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2014-10-05
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI140613118B
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Issue 2, PAGES [371 - 382]
REFERENCES
  1. Jovančić, P., M. Tanasijević, and D. Ivezić, Serbian energy development based on lignite production. Energy Policy, 2011. 39(3): p. 1191-1199.
  2. Kovacevic, A., Fossil Fuel Subsidies in the Western Balkans, 2011.
  3. ***Treaty Establishing The Energy Community, Brussels, 2006.
  4. ***Energy 2020 A strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy. 2010; Available from: eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2010:0639:fin:en:html.
  5. *** Study on the Need for Modernization of Large Combustion Plants in the Energy Community, 2013, South East European Consultants.
  6. Stritih, J. Time to Phase Out Dirty Coal in South Eastern Europe. 2013; Available from: www.seechangenetwork.org/index.php/publications/time-to-phase-out-dirty-coal-in-south-eastern-europe.html.
  7. Loyd, S. and G. Craigie, Continued Operation of ‘Opted-Out' Large Combustion Plants under the IED, 2011, Parsons Brinckerhoff.
  8. Oka, S.N., et al., Investigation of the suitability of Serbian lignite Kolubara and Kovin for burning in CFBC boilers. Termotehnika, 2004. 30(1-4): p. 83-103.
  9. Kovacevic, A. Pristupanje Srbije Evropskoj uniji: značaj materijalnih uslova u oblasti energetike. 2013; Available from: www.emins.org/uploads/useruploads/forum-it/IF---17-Materijalni-usloviNET2.pdf.
  10. ***Draft Energy Sector Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2025 with projections by 2030. 2013; Available from: www.merz.gov.rs/sites/default/files/Energy_Sector_Development_Strategy.pdf.
  11. ***Decision D/2013/05/MC-EnC on LCP Directive implementing rules. Large Combustion Plants 2013; Available from: www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/enc_home/areas_of_work/Environment/LCP.
  12. ***PCR, EUPHEMIA Public Description, 2013, APX - Belpex - EPEX Spot - Mercatoelettrico (GME)- Nord Pool Spot - OMIE - OTE (PCR PXs).
  13. Reiche, D., Renewable energies in the EU-Accession States. Energy Policy, 2006. 34(3): p. 365-375.
  14. McGarrity, J. EU finance arm curbs loans to coal-fired power plants. 2013; Available from: www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/24/eu-coal-finance-idUSL6N0FU27520130724.
  15. Sweet, B. EPA Issues Regulations for New Coal-Fired Plants Energywise 2013; Available from: spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/green-tech/clean-coal/epa-issues-regulations-for-new-coalfired-plants#.Uox5IczHdzM.mendeley.
  16. Yukhananov, A. and V. Volcovici. World Bank to limit financing of coal-fired plants. 2013; Available from: www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/16/us-worldbank-climate-coal-idUSBRE96F19U20130716.
  17. ***CO2 generated electricity per kilo-Watt hour in 2009 per member country. 2011; Available from: www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/co2-electricity-g-per-kwh#tab-data-references.
  18. ***The Energy Sector Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia by 2015. 2005.
  19. Mathiesen, B.V., H. Lund, and K. Karlsson, 100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth. Applied Energy, 2011. 88(2): p. 488-501.
  20. Nicholson, M., T. Biegler, and B.W. Brook, How carbon pricing changes the relative competitiveness of low-carbon baseload generating technologies. Energy, 2011. 36(1): p. 305-313.
  21. Denny, E. and M. O'Malley, The impact of carbon prices on generation-cycling costs. Energy Policy, 2009. 37(4): p. 1204-1212.
  22. Sensfuß, F., M. Ragwitz, and M. Genoese, The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany. Energy Policy, 2008. 36(8): p. 3086-3094.
  23. Višković, A., V. Franki, and V. Valentić, Effect of regulation on power-plant operation and investment in the South East Europe Market: An analysis of two cases. Utilities Policy, 2014. 30(0): p. 8-17.
  24. Bazilian, M., et al., Open source software and crowdsourcing for energy analysis. Energy Policy, 2012. 49: p. 149-153.
  25. Connolly, D., et al., A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems. Applied Energy, 2010. 87(4): p. 1059-1082.
  26. Lund, H., Large-scale integration of wind power into different energy systems. Energy, 2005. 30(13): p. 2402-2412.
  27. Lund, H.Ã. and B.V. Mathiesen, Energy system analysis of 100 % renewable energy systems — The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050. Energy, 2009. 34: p. 524-531.
  28. Sáfián, F., Modelling the Hungarian energy system - The first step towards sustainable energy planning. Energy, 2014. 69(0): p. 58-66.
  29. Gota, D.-I., H. Lund, and L. Miclea, A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy. Energy, 2011. 36(11): p. 6413-6419.
  30. Batas Bjelić, I., et al., Increasing wind power penetration into the existing Serbian energy system. Energy, 2013. 57(0): p. 30-37.
  31. Ćosić, B., et al. Improving the RES absorption capacity of the Macedonian energy system. in International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems. 2011.
  32. Ćosić, B., G. Krajačić, and N. Duić, A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia. Energy, 2012. 48(1): p. 80-87.
  33. Ćosić, B., et al., 100% Renewable Energy Solutions for Regions: the Case of South East Europe Energija, ekologija, ekonomija 2013. 15(3-4): p. 227-235.
  34. Lund, H. EnergyPLAN Advanced Energy Systems Analysis Computer Model Documentation Version 11.0. 2013; Available from: www.energyplan.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/EnergyPLAN-Documentation-V11-2013.pdf.
  35. ***European Energy Exchange. Available from: www.eex.com/en/.
  36. ***Energy Strategy of the Energy community. 2013; 10thMC/18/10/2012 - Annex 19/27.07.2012:
  37. ***Draft National Renewable Energy Action Plan. 2012 December 2012; Available from: www.merz.gov.rs/sites/default/files/Pojednostavljeni%20nacionalni%20akcioni%20plan%20za%20obnovljive%20izvore%20energije.pdf.
  38. ***The First Energy Efficiency Plan of the Republic of Serbia for the Period from 2010 to 2012. 2010; Available from: www.energy-community.org/pls/portal/docs/986181.PDF.
  39. ***Priority projects of the Ministry of energy, development and environmental protection in the field of energy. 2012; Available from: www.merz.gov.rs/sites/default/files/Ministry%20of%20defence%20and%20Ministry%20of%20energy%2C%20development%20and%20environmental%20protection%20projects.pdf.
  40. ***Investy in haste, repent at leisure. 2013; Available from: bankwatch.org/sites/default/files/SEE-IFI-energy.pdf.
  41. ***Directive 2001/80/EC on the limitation of emmissions of certain pollutants into the air from large combustion plants. 2001; Available from: www.energy-community.org/pls/portal/docs/36286.PDF.
  42. ***Initial National Communication of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2010; Available from: unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/srbnc1.pdf.
  43. Zhao, X., et al., Implementation of energy-saving policies in China: How local governments assisted industrial enterprises in achieving energy-saving targets. Energy Policy, 2014. 66(0): p. 170-184.
  44. Kovačević, A., Accession of Serbia to the European Union - importance of material requirements in the energy sector, in Research forum of the European Movement in Serbia2013: Belgrade.
  45. ***The Energy Law. 124/12 2011; Available from: www.aers.rs/FILES/Zakoni/Eng/Zakon%20o%20energetici_57-11.pdf.
  46. ***Study on the Potential for Climate Change Combating in Power Generation in the Energy Community. 2011; Available from: www.energy-community.org/pls/portal/docs/2526177.PDF.
  47. ***Large Combustion Plants. Reference Document on Best Available Techniques for 2006; Available from: ec.europa.eu/environment/ippc/brefs/lcp_bref_0706.pdf.
  48. Lund, H. EnergyPLAN Exercise 3: More Simple Energy System Analyses. 2010; Available from: energy.plan.aau.dk/Exercise/EnergyPLANExercise3.pdf.
  49. Batas Bjelic, I., et al., Improvements of Serbian-NEEAP based on analysis of residential electrcity demand until 2030, in IEWT2013: Vienna.
PDF VERSION [DOWNLOAD]
A realistic EU vision of a lignite-based energy system in transition: Case study of Serbia

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence