International Scientific Journal

Authors of this Paper

External Links


Greenhouse gas emission reductions are at the centre of national and international efforts to mitigate climate change. In road transportation, many politically incentivised measures focus on increasing the energy efficiency of established technologies, or promoting electric or hybrid vehicles. The abatement potential of the former approach is limited, electric mobility technologies are not yet market-ready. In a case study for Germany, this paper focuses on natural gas powered vehicles as a bridging technology in road transportation. Scenario analyses with a low level of aggregation show that natural gas-based road transportation in Germany can accumulate up to 464 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emission reductions until 2030 depending on the speed of the diffusion process. If similar policies were adopted EU-wide, the emission reduction potential could reach a maximum of about 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. Efforts to promote natural gas as a bridging technology may therefore contribute to significant emissions reductions.
PAPER REVISED: 2012-03-27
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2012-04-14
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2012, VOLUME 16, ISSUE Issue 3, PAGES [729 - 746]
  1. ***, German Federal Environment Agency, National Trend Tables for the German Atmospheric Emission Reporting 1990 - 2009 (final version: 17.01.2011), German Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany, 2011
  2. Rodt, S. et al., CO2 Emission Reduction in Transport in Germany. Feasible Actions and Their Reduction Potentials. Progress Report of the Federal Environment Agency (in German language), UBA-Texte 05/2010, German Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany, 2010
  3. Edwards, R. et al., Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels and Powertrains in the European Context. Well-to-Wheels Report. Version 2c, March 2007, CONCAWE, European Council for Automotive R&D (EUCAR) and Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC), Brussels, Belgium, 2007
  4. Richter, J. and Lindenberger, D., Potentials of Electric Mobility Until 2050. A Scenario Based Analysis of Cost Effectiveness, Environmental Impacts and System Integration. Final Report (in German language), Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), Cologne, Germany, 2010
  5. ***, German Federal Environment Agency, Development of Specific Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the German Electricity Mix 2990-2008 and First Estimates 2009 (in German language), German Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany, 2010
  6. Geitmann, S., Alternative Fuels. Natural Gas & Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Biodiesel & Vegetable Oil - Ethanol & Hydrogen. Which Fuel Is Best? (in German language), Hydrogeit, Oberkrämer, Germany, 2008
  7. ***, International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles (IANGV), Natural Gas Vehicle Statistics, (accessed 19 August 2010)
  8. ***, German Energy Agency, Natural Gas and Biogas in the Future Fuel Mix - Need for Action and Feasible Options for an Accelerated Establishment in Transport (in German language), Eggersdorfer Druck- und Verlagshaus, Berlin, Germany, 2010
  9. Schlesinger, M. et al., Energy Scenario for an Energy Concept of the Federal Government. Project No. 12/10 od the Federal Ministry for Economics and Technology, Berlin (in German language), Prognos AG, Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) and Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS), Basel, Cologne and Osnabrück, 2010
  10. Fischedick, M. et al., Long-term Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Consumption in Germany. Research Project for the Federal Environment Agency. Abbreviated Version (in German language), German Federal Environment Agency, Berlin, Germany, 2002
  11. Matthes, F. C. et al., Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection IV. Scenarios Until 2030 (in German language), Climate Change 1/08, German Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany, 2008
  12. Lindenberger D. et al., Study Energy Economic Master Plan 2030 (in German language), BDEW German Association of Energy and Water Industries (ed.), VWEW Energieverlag, Frankfurt on the Main, Germany, 2008
  13. ***, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Primes Ver. 2 Energy Model. Detailed Results. EU27: Baseline Scenario (with Revised Aviation), National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece, 2006
  14. ***, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Primes Ver. 2 Energy Model. Detailed Results - Comparison to Baseline scenario. EU27: Combined High Renewables and Efficiency Case, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece, 2006
  15. ***, International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2009, IEA Publications, Paris, France, 2009
  16. ***, German Government, Perspectives for Germany. Our Strategy for Sustainable Development. Progress Report 2004. Chapter E - Section III "The Fuel Strategy - Alternative Fuels and Innovative Drive Systems". Report of the Sub-working Group "Fuel Matrix" for the "Matrix Process" (in German language), Berlin, Germany, 2004
  17. ***, World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF), Model Germany. Climate Protection Until 2030: Thinking With the Goal in Mind. Final Report. Full Version (in German language), Prognos and Öko-Institut, Basel and Berlin, Switzerland and Germany, 2009
  18. Capros, P. et al., EU Energy Trends to 2030 - Update 2009, Directorate-General for Energy in Collaboration with Climate Action DG and Mobility and Transport DG, European Commission, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxemburg, 2010
  19. Corsten, H., Gössinger, R. and Schneider, H., Diffusion of Innovations. Macro- and Micro-economic Models (in German language), Schriften zum Produktionsmanagement, No. 76, Department of Political Sciences, University of Kaiserslautern, Kaiserslautern, 2005
  20. Petermann, T., Technological Impact Assessment and Diffusion Research. Discussion Paper (in German language), Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag, Berlin, Germany, 2000
  21. Kellner, C., Diffusion of Innovative Technologies Using the Example of Fuel Cell Passenger Cars (in German language), Ph. D. Thesis, University of Ulm, Ulm, Germany, 2008
  22. Hekkert, M.P. et al., Natural Gas as an Alternative to Crude Oil in Automotive Fuel Chains Well-to-Wheel Analysis and Transition Strategy Development, Energy Policy, 33 (2003), 5, pp. 579-594
  23. ***, European Commission, Communication of the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of Regions On Alternative Fuels for Road Transportation and Packet of Actions for the Promotion of the Use of Biofuels (in German language), Brussels, Belgium, 2001
  24. Yeh, S., An Empirical Analysis on the Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: The Case of Natural Gas Vehicles, Energy Policy, 35 (2007), 11, pp. 5865-5875
  25. Sperling, D. and Kitamura, R., Refueling and New Fuels: An Explanatory Analysis, Transportation Research Part A: General, 20 (1986), 1, pp. 15-23
  26. Schwoon, M., Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles, Working Paper FNU-59, updated February 2006, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg, 2006
  27. Carle, G., Wokaun, A. and Axhausen, K.W., Market Potential of Compressed Natural Gas Cars in the Swiss Passenger Car Sector, World Transport Policy & Practice, 12 (2006), 2, pp. 6-21
  28. Janssen, A. et al., A., Model Aided Policy Development for the Market Penetration of Natural Gas Vehicles in Switzerland, Transportation Research Part A, 40 (2006), 4, pp. 316-333
  29. Ramesohl, S. et al., Development of an Overall Strategy for the Introduction of Alternative Fuels, Especially Hydrogen Generated Using Electricity from Renewable Energy, Final Report, Research Project Within the Framework of the UFOPLAN of the Federal Environment Agency (in German language), Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, German Aerospace Center (DLR) and Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (IFEU), Wuppertal, Köln, Heidelberg, Germany, 2006
  30. Borbonus, S. et al., The Impact of Strongly Rising Oil and Gas Prices for Private and Commercial Transport in North Rhine-Westphalia. Expertise on Behalf of the Committee of Enquiry I of the North Rhine-Westphalian Parliament "Impacts of Long-term Soaring Prices of Oil and Gas Imports on the Economy and Consumers in North Rhine-Westphalia". Final Report (in German language), Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany, 2007
  31. Rogers, E. M., Diffusion of Innovations, Fourth Edition, The Free Press, New York, 1995
  32. Schüwer, D. et al., Natural Gas: Road to the Renewable Energy Age. Assessment of the Energy Source Natural Gas and Its Import Dependency. Background Report on Behalf of Greenpeace Germany. Final Report (in German language), Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany, 2010
  33. Gligorijević, R. et al., Potentials and Limitations of Alternative Fuels for Diesel Engine, Thermal Science, 13 (2009), 3, pp. 175-183
  34. Mokhtarian, P. L. and Cao, X., The Future Demand for Alternative Fuel Passenger Vehicles: A Diffusion of Innovation Approach. UC Davis - Caltrans Air Quality Project. Task Order No. 31. Final Report, UC Davis, California, 2004
  35. Carle, G., Natural Gas Vehicles and Their Contribution to CO2 Reductions in Motorised Passenger Transportation in Switzerland (in German language), Ph. D. Thesis, IVZ, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 2006.
  36. Schubert, R.K. and Fable, S., Comparative Costs of 2010 Heavy-Duty Diesel and Natural Gas Technologies, Report to the California Natural Gas Vehicle Partnership, Prepared by Tiax LLC, Cupertino, California, 2010
  37. Hess, D., What is a clean bus? Object conflicts in the greening of urban transit, Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy, 3 (2007), 1, pp. 45-58
  38. Erdmann, G. et al., DRIVE - The Future of Automotive Power, McKinsey & Company, Munich, Germany, 2006
  39. Hintemann, R., The Diffusion of Environmentally Friendly Premium Consumer Goods - by Example of Low-energy Vehicles (in German language), Europäische Hochschulschriften, V, Vol. 2852, Peter Lang, Frankfurt on the Main, 2002
  40. Erdmann, G. and Zweifel, P., Energy Economics. Theory and Practice (in German language), Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2008
  41. ***, German Federal Motor Transport Authority, Vehicle Registrations. Stock of Motor Vehicles and Trailers by Age of Vehicle. 1 January 2010. Statistic Communication of the Federal Motor Transport Authority FZ 15 (in German language), German Federal Motor Transport Authority, Flensburg, Germany, 2010
  42. Chester, M. and Horvath, A., Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air, Working Paper UCB-ITS-VWP-2007-7, Berkeley, 2007
  43. Kolodziej, A., Data on Transport. 2009 Edition (in German language), German Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany, 2009

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence