THERMAL SCIENCE

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Guyue Liu

,

Huilai Li

DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF A CLASS OF MONKEYPOX EPIDEMIC MODEL

ABSTRACT
In this paper, we proposed and investigated a class of Monkeypox infectious mathematical model between human and animal populations, with a particular focus on interventions targeting early-exposed population. The model involves a more realistic incidence term and the possible stochastic perturbations. We conducted a detailed mathematical analysis of the corresponding deterministic model, including the existence of solutions to the equations, the existence of equilibria, the basic reproduction number, R0, and the local stability of equilibria. Then we turned to the stochastic model, and obtained the sufficient conditions of the disease eradication and sustained persistence of the stochastic system. Finally, we conducted numerical simulations to validate the proposed models and validated that the stochastic interaction is a crucial factor for studying the infectious disease. The results indicated that the detection and intervention of early-stage infected individuals have significant impact on the control of the disease transmission.
KEYWORDS
deterministic model, stochastic perturbation, Monkeypox, stability analysis
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2023-03-15
PAPER REVISED: 2023-05-20
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2023-06-21
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2024-09-28
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI2404367L
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2024, VOLUME 28, ISSUE Issue 4, PAGES [3367 - 3383]
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Dynamical analysis of a class of Monkeypox epidemic model

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence