THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Marina P. Jovanović

,

Vukman V. Bakić

,

Biljana S. Vučićević

,

Valentina M. Turanjanin

ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND SUSTAINABILITY MEASUREMENT IN THE DISTRICT HEATING SECTOR IN SERBIA

ABSTRACT
The district heating system in Serbia, with an installed capacity of 6600 MW, currently supplies 58 towns with thermal energy. As a candidate country for accession to the European Union, Serbia faces the obligation to reduce the level of its GHG emissions as part of environmental reforms. This paper presents a basic scenario and three alternatives for final energy consumption in the district heating sector for the years 2015, 2020, and 2025. It is suggested that demand for heating will increase 10% up to 2020 and by 15% up to 2025, in relation to 2015 levels, while the share of each energy carrier will not change. Changing the structure of energy sources for heat supply assumes a decrease in the share of coal and liquid fuel, and increases in the use of biomass and natural gas. The results obtained were compared to the General Index of Sustainability which is a measure of the complexity of the proposed energy scenario. The paper considers the formation of related energy indicators as quantitative tools for the analysis of changes. It also proposes a methodology for multi-criteria analysis in the sustainability assessment of complex energy systems based on the stochastic evaluation of criteria (sets of indicators and sub-indicators). In this way, the results of the multi-criteria assessment can help in the decision-making process in cases where economic, social and ecological criteria are considered to be influential. [Projects of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III42008: Improving the energy performance and the indoor air quality of educational institution buildings in Serbia with the impact on health and Grant no. TR33036: Development of new meteorological mast for turbulence parameters characterization]
KEYWORDS
district heating system, energy scenarios, sustainability, multi-criteria decision
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2018-10-09
PAPER REVISED: 2018-10-25
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2018-10-27
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2018-11-04
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI181009298J
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2019, VOLUME 23, ISSUE Issue 3, PAGES [2085 - 2096]
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Analysis of different scenarios and sustainability measurement in the district heating sector in Serbia

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence