ABSTRACT
Thermal energy demand in the residential building sector represents a big challenge for Serbia. In order to understand how to reduce this demand, and thereby avoiding GHG gas emissions, a bottom-up simulation model was developed. The model built the business-as-usual and two decarbonization scenarios up to 2030. For each scenario, such results as useful and final energy consumption, associated CO2 emissions, energy costs, investment costs and others were prepared at each level of the building stock segmentation. To develop such a detailed model, the topology of the residential building stock was developed and used as an input. For each individual building type, three retrofit packages of different stringency were analyzed. The paper delivers several important messages for the decarbonization of Serbia. First, it argues that the level of thermal energy services consumed by Serbian households is inadequate to address their needs. Second, the households of Serbia are likely to consume more wood than it was reported by national energy balances. Third, thermal energy efficiency retrofits can significantly reduce household energy demand at the same time as offering higher thermal comfort. However, the required investments are high and therefore benefits beyond energy cost savings should also be considered in order to make the transition to the low energy building stock economically feasible.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2017-12-21
PAPER REVISED: 2018-03-19
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2018-04-04
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2018-09-23
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR
2018, VOLUME
22, ISSUE
Supplement 4, PAGES [S1231 - S1247]
- Abbaspour, M., et al., Energy Demand Model of the Household Sector and Its Application in Developing Metropolitan Cities (Case Study: Tehran ), Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 22 (2013), 2, pp. 319-329
- Ates, S. A., Energy Efficiency and CO2 Mitigation Potential of the Turkish Iron and Steel Industry Using the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) System. Energy 90 (2015), pp. 417-428
- Ballarini, I. et al., Use of reference buildings to assess the energy saving potentials of the residential building stock: The experience of TABULA project, Energy Policy, 68 (2014), pp.273-284
- Csoknyai, T. et al., Building stock characteristics and energy performance of residential buildings in Eastern-European countries, Energy and buildings, 132 (2016), pp. 39-52
- Dall'O', G., et al., A methodology for evaluating the potential energy savings of retrofitting residential building stocks. Sustainable Cities and Society, 4 (2012), 1, pp.12-21
- EEA, Energy Consumption by End Uses per Dwelling, 2012, www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/households-energy-consumption-by-end-uses-3
- European Commission, Directive 2010/31/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on the Energy Performance of Buildings (Recast), Official Journal of the European Union, L153 of 18.06.2010
- Fracastoro, G.V. & Serraino, M., A methodology for assessing the energy performance of large scale building stocks and possible applications. Energy and Buildings, 43(4), pp. 844-852
- Hong, S. et al., Analysis on the Level of Contribution to the National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target in Korean Transportation Sector Using LEAP Model, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 60 (2016), pp. 549-559
- INSTAT, CENSUS, 2001, www.instat.gov.al/en/census/census-2001/census-data.aspx
- INSTAT, CENSUS, 2011, www.instat.gov.al/en/figures/statistical-databases.aspx
- INSTAT, Atlas of Multifamily Housing in Serbia, GIZ - Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, 2013
- Jovanovic Popovic, M. et al. Atlas of Family Housing in Serbia, GIZ - Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, 2012
- Jovanovic Popovic, M. et al., National Typology of Residential Buildings in Serbia, Faculty of architecture, University of Belgrade, GIZ- Deutche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit, 2013
- Kelemen, A. et al. INDC Technical Background Document Albania, Version 25.08.2015, 2015
- Legro, et al. Energy Efficiency, in: Sustainable Energy and Human Development in ECIS, United Nations Development Programme, Bratislava, 2014
- McKenna, R. et al., Energy efficiency in the German residential sector: A bottom-up building-stock-model-based analysis in the context of energy-political targets, Building and Environment, 62 (2013), pp. 77-88
- Miljanic, Zoran, Personal and email communication, 2015
- MONSTAT, CENSUS, 2003, www.monstat.org/eng/page.php?id=57&pageid=57
- MONSTAT, CENSUS, 2011, www.monstat.org/eng/page.php?id=184&pageid=184
- Novikova, A. et al. The Typology of the Residential Buildings Stock of Serbia and Modelling Its Transformation to the Low Carbon Future. Support for Low Emission Development in South East Europe (SLED), Regional Environmental Centre, Szentendre, 2015
- Novikova, A. et al. The Typology of the Residential Buildings Stock of Montenegro and Modelling Its Transformation to the Low Carbon Future. Support for Low Emission Development in South East Europe (SLED), Regional Environmental Centre, Szentendre, 2015
- Novikova, A. et. al. The Typology of the Residential Buildings Stock of Albania and Modelling Its Transformation to the Low Carbon Future. Support for Low Emission Development in South East Europe (SLED), Regional Environmental Centre, Szentendre, 2015
- Puksec, T. et al., Assessing the Impact of Energy Saving Measures on the Future Energy Demand and Related GHG Emission Reduction of Croatia, Energy 76 (2014), pp. 198-209
- Republic of Serbia, Law on Efficient Use of Energy (ZAKON O EFIKASNOM KORIŠĆENJU ENERGIJE - in Serbian), RS Official Gazette (2013) 25
- Sadri, A., et al., General Procedure for Long-Term Energy-Environmental Planning for Transportation Sector of Developing Countries with Limited Data Based on LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning) and EnergyPLAN, Energy, 77 (2014), pp. 831-843
- Sartori, I., et al., Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction, Energy Policy, 37 (2009) 5, pp.1614-1627
- Shabbir, R., Ahmad, Sh., S., Monitoring Urban Transport Air Pollution and Energy Demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad Using Leap Model, Energy 35 (2010) 5. pp. 2323-2332
- Simaku, Gj., et al., Albanian Residential Building Typology Matrix, Internal report, 2014
- Simaku, Gj., et al., Albania-National Builing Typology, Energy Performance and Saving Potential, Internal report, 2014
- SORS, CENSUS, 2011, popis2011.stat.rs/?page_id=2162&lang=en
- SORS, Energy Balances 2013, 2014, webrzs.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/userFiles/file/Energetika/2014-10-06/Energetski%20bilansi%20Republike%20Srbije,%202013%20-%20konacni%20podaci.pdf
- Swan, L.G., Ugursal, V.I., Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13 (2009) 8, pp. 1819-1835
- Szabo, L. et al. Electricity Sector Modelling Assessment in Montenegro. Support for Low-Emission Development in South Eastern Europe (SLED., Regional Environmental Centre, Szentendre, 2015
- Weibull, W., A Statistical Distribution Function of Wide Applicability, Journal of Applied Mechanics, 18 (1951) 3: pp. 293-297