THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Milan M. Radovanović

,

Yaroslav Vyklyuk

,

Slavica B. Malinović-Milićević

,

Dejana M. Jakovljević

,

Milovan R. Pecelj

MODELLING OF FOREST FIRES TIME EVOLUTION IN THE USA ON THE BASIS OF LONG TERM VARIATIONS AND DYNAMICS OF THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SOLAR WIND PROTONS

ABSTRACT
The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of protons, i.e. temperature of the particles that are coming from the sun and forest fires in the USA. For determination of the degree of randomness for time series of input (temperature of protons) and output parameters (number of forest fires), the R/S analysis is conducted. The analysis of fractal dimension provides us an opportunity to compare self-similar processes in the influx of protons and the time series of forest fires flashes. Therefore we developed and conducted the sensitivity analysis of model based on hybrid neural networks ANFIS. As the calculations showed, only 16% of the real forest flashes cannot be predicted by the model. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47007]
KEYWORDS
forest fires, temperature of protons, forecast, ANFIS models, USA
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2014-11-03
PAPER REVISED: 2014-12-12
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2014-12-26
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2014-12-28
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI141103150R
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Supplement 2, PAGES [S437 - S444]
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Modelling of forest fires time evolution in the USA on the basis of long term variations and dynamics of the temperature of the solar wind protons

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence