THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Authors of this Paper

External Links

Miroslav M. Doderović

,

Dragan B. Burić

ATLANTIC MULTI-DECADAL OSCILLATION AND CHANGES OF SUMMER AIR TEMPERATURE IN MONTENEGRO

ABSTRACT
The paper has examined the impact of variations of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the change in air temperature during the summer season on the territory of Montenegro. Starting from the fact that in recent years more and more extreme weather events occur, as well as from the intention to comprehensively consider the temperature conditions in the territory of Montenegro, first analysis is of changes in air temperature in 8 parameters, of which 5 climate indices; connections with AMO have also been analyzed. To study changes in temperature extreme indexes proposed by the WMO CCL / CLIVAR are used. Research within the listed topics was realized using data from 23 meteorological stations for the period 1951-2010 and the calculations are done for the summer season. The results show that there is increased number of maximum and minimum daily temperatures of warmer value. Impact assessment AMO, teleconnection pattern that is quite distant, showed that its variability affects changes in summer temperatures in Montenegro, both in terms of mean values, and the frequency of extreme actions presented by climate indices.
KEYWORDS
temperature, extremes, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Montenegro
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2015-04-30
PAPER REVISED: 2015-06-27
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2015-07-14
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2015-08-08
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI150430115D
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Supplement 2, PAGES [S405 - S414]
REFERENCES
  1. Solomon, S. et. al., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Report No. 4, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
  2. Peterson, T. C. et. al., Report on the activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs 1998-2001. World Meteorological Organisation Rep. WMOTD No. 1071, WCDMP-No. 47, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007.
  3. Buric D., Savremene promene ekstremnih temperatura vazduha u Crnoj Gori u periodu 1951- 2010,
  4. Burić, D., et.al,. Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over southern Montenegro (1951- 2010), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14 (2014): pp.67-72. doi:10.5194/nhess-14-67-2014.
  5. Frich, P., et.al., Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19 (2002), 3, p. 193-212. doi:10.3354/cr019193
  6. Klein-Tank, et.al., Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe, 1946-99. Journal of Climate, 16 (2002 ), 22, pp. 3665-3680
  7. Trigo, R, et.al . Chapter 3: Relations between Variability in the Mediterranean Region and Midlatitude Variability, in: Mediterranean Climate Variability, Lionello, P. et. al., Elsevier, Amsterdam, Holand, 2006, pp. 179-226
  8. Kostopoulou, E. and Jones, P.D. Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89, 2005, pp. 69-85, 2005
  9. Della-Marta, P.M., et.al., Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (2007), (D15103): pp.1-11. doi:10.1029/2007JD008510.
  10. Kuglitsch, F.G., et.al., Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960., Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, (2010), L0482. doi:10.1029/2009GL041841.
  11. Unkašević, M. and Tošić, I., . An analysis of heat waves in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change, 65,(2009) pp. 17-26. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.009.
  12. Unkašević, M. and Tošić, I., The maximum temperatures and heat waves in Serbia during the summer of 2007. Climatic Change, 108, (2010), pp. 207-223. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-0006-4.
  13. Wang, C., et.al., Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, (2008), Q05V03, doi:10.1029/2007GC001809.
  14. Schlesinger M.E. and Ramankutty, N., An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65- 70 years. Nature, 367, (2004) pp.723 - 726.
  15. McCabe, G.J., et.al ., Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101, (2004), 12, pp. 4136- 4141. doi_10.1073_pnas.0306738101.
  16. Biondi, F., et.al., Inter-decadal signals during the last millennium (AD 1117-1992) in the varve record of Santa Barbara basin, California. Geophysical Research Letters, 24, (1997), pp. 193-196.
  17. Delworth, T.L. and Mann, M.E. (2000). Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 16, (2000), 9, pp. 661-676. doi: 10.1007/s003820000075.
  18. Goldenberg, S.B., et.al., The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity—causes and implications. Science, 293, (2001) , 5529, pp. 474-479. doi: 10.1126/science.1060040.
  19. Trenberth, K.E. and Shea, D.J., Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, (2006), 12, L12704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894.
  20. Enfield, D.B., et.al., The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and it's relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental US. Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (2001), 10, pp. 2077-2080. doi: 10.1029/2000ГЛ012745
  21. Compo, G.P. and Sardeshmukh, P.D. Oceanic influences on recent continental warming. Climate Dynamics, 32, (2009), pp. 333-342. doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9.
  22. Henk, A., et.al., On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Ocean Dynamics 56, (2006), 1, pp. 36-50. doi:10.1007/s10236-005-0043-0.
  23. Szentimrey, T. Multiple analysis of series for homogenization (MASH); Verification procedure for homogenized time series, Fourth seminar for homogenization and quality control in climatological databases. Budapest, WMO-TD No. 1236, WCDMP No. 56, 2003, pp. 193-201.
  24. World Meteorological Organization , Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation, Climate Data and Monitoring WCDMP-No. 72. Geneva 2, Switzerland, 2009.
  25. Zhang, X., et.al., Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110,(2005), D22104,doi:10.1029/2005JD006181
  26. Salmi, T., et.al., Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann- Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates-the Excel template application MAKESENS. Report No. 31, Finnish Meteorological Institute Publications on Air Quality, Helsinki, Finland, 2002.
  27. Olofintoye, O.O., Sule, B.F. , Impact of Global Warming on the Rainfall and Temperature in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. J. Research Information in Civil Engineering, 7, (2010), 2, pp. 33-48.
  28. Šumenjak, K, Šuster, V., Parametrični in neparametrični pristopi za odkrivanje trenda v časovnih vrstah,
  29. Mondal, A, et.al., Rainfall trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test: A case study of norh-eastern part of cuttack distrct, Orissa. International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental Sciences, 2, (2012), 1, pp. 70-78.
  30. Foster, G. and Rahmstorf, S., Global temperature evolution 1979-2010. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, (2011), 4, pp. 1-8.
  31. Tung, K.K. and Zhou. J. , Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, (2013), 6, pp. 2058-2063. doi/10.1073/pnas.1212471110.
  32. Muller, A.R., et.al., Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 118, (2013), 11, pp. 5280-5286. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50458.
  33. Lean, J.L., and Rind, D.H., How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, (2008), 18, L18701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034864.
PDF VERSION [DOWNLOAD]
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and changes of summer air temperature in Montenegro

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence