THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Authors of this Paper

External Links

Miodrag Mesarović

SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTIES FEED SCEPTICISM ON CLIMATE CHANGE

ABSTRACT
Climate change is a complex and multi-facetted phenomenon, interpreted by an extensive body of interdisciplinary science. Although a great deal is known about the climate system, an enormous amount of uncertainty remains. Since uncertainty is usually equated with ignorance, this fact feeds scepticism on man-induced impacts on the global climate and links climate change wth natural causes only. A broader concept of climate change science is presented by focusing on both early and modern scientific foundations of climate models and specific types of uncertainty usually encountered when formulating quantitative assessments of risks due to climate change. Major controversial issues of such risks and their origin is addressed with paticular attention paid to the widespread criticism for inconsistency of the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the assumptions found not always justified by the real scientific methods. Major inconsistencies and misleading arguments on the climate change are also discussed.
KEYWORDS
climate change, uncertainty, risk, interdisciplinarity, scepticism, IPCC
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2015-06-28
PAPER REVISED: 2015-11-29
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2015-11-29
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2015-12-13
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI150628194M
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Supplement 2, PAGES [S259 - S278]
REFERENCES
  1. Pollack, H., N., Uncertain Science, Uncertain World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2005
  2. Weart, S., Climate Change Impacts: The Growth of Understanding, Physics Today, Vol. 68, No. 9, September 2015, pp. 46-52
  3. Ruddiman, W., Orbital Changes and Climate, Quaternary Science Review, 25 (2006), pp. 3092-3112
  4. Milankovi, M., Mathematical Theory of the Thermal Phenomenon Caused by the Solar Radiation, (in French), Gauthier-Villars, Paris,1920.
  5. Farmer, G. T., and Cook J., Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis, Volume 1 - The Physical Climate, Springer Science+Business Media, Dordrecht, 2013
  6. ***IPCC 2014 Synthesis report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151pp.
  7. *** Climate Change and the Ocean, IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1820 pp.
  8. Spencer, R. W., Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Earth System Science, October 2008.
  9. Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.
  10. Meyer, W., A Skeptical Layman' s Guide to Anthropogenic Global Warming, Version 1.01, www.CoyoteBlog.com, Dated 7/3/2007
  11. Fourier, J., On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space, (in French), Mémoires de l'Académie Royale Des Sciences, Vol. 7, 1827, pp. 569-604
  12. Fleming, J. R., The Callendar Effect: The Life and Work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964). University of Chicago Press, 2009.
  13. Friedman, R. M., Appropriating the Weather: Vilhelm Bjerknes and the Construction of a Modern Meteorology, Cornell University Press, 1993.
  14. Arrhenius, S. A., On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground, (In Swedish) Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, Series 5, Vol. 41, 1896, pp. 237-276.
  15. Crawford, E., Arrhenius: From Ionic Theory to the Greenhouse Effect, Science History Publications, Canton, MA,1996.
  16. Schwartz, S. E., Reply to comments by G. Foster et al., R. Knutti et al., and N. Scafetta on "Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth' s climate system" Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, 2008, p.10
  17. ***Summary for Policy Makers: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2014, 32 pp.
  18. Weart, S., Rise in Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, PNAS, Vol. 110, 2013, S. 1, pp. 3657-3664
  19. Milankovi, M., Canon of Insolation and the Ice Age Problem (in German), Sebian Royal Academy of Science and Arts, Special publication, Belgrade, 1941, 633 pp.
  20. Mesarovi, M., Towards Cooling or Heating: Was Milankovi Wrong?, Proceedings of the 40th Congress on Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning, 2-4 December 2008, Belgrade, pp. 13-23
  21. Houghton, J.T., et al.: Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, 1995, 339 pp.
  22. Mesarovi, M.: Impact of Scientific Uncertainties in Predicting Global Warming from Burning Fossil Fuels on the Current Energy Policy (in Serbian), Proceedings of the 10th Symposium of the Yugoslav Society of Thermal Engineers, YUTERM' 97, Zlatibor 24-28, June 1997
  23. Curry, J. A. and Webster P. J., Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster, Bulletn of the American Meteorological Society, BAMS, December 2011, pp. 1667-1682
  24. Gardiner, S. M., Ethics and Global Climate Change, Ethics, Vol. 114, No. 3. April 2004
  25. Hayward, S. F., In Denial - The Meltdown of Climate Campaign, The Weekly Standard, Vol. 15, No. 25, March 15, 2010.
  26. ***The Cocktail Conversation Guide to Global Warming, George C. Marshall Institute,Washington, July 23, 2009.
  27. Gornitz, V. (ed.), Climate Change Causes, Chapter in Encyclopedia of Paleo-climatology and Ancient Environment, Springer, 2009, XXVIII, 1049 pp.
  28. Solomon et al., Irreversible Climate Change due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences, PNAS, Feb.10, 2009, Vol. 106, No. 6, pp. 1704-1709
  29. Idso, C.D and Idso K.E., Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: Where We Stand on the Issue?, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, CO2 Science, Vol. 18, 2015
  30. Varma, V., Climate of the Past Holocene Evolution of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds in Transient Simulations with Global Climate Models, Climate of the Past, Vol. 8, 2012, pp. 391-402.
  31. Mesarovi, M., Relationship of Power Generation and Climate Change - Famous Discoveries of Nikola Tesla and Milutin Milankovi, Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium Nikola Tesla, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, 2006, Belgrade, pp. 271-274
  32. Cook, J., The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism, Downloaded on October 27, 2015 from www.scepticalscience.com
  33. Lindzen, R. S., Climate of Fear: Global Warming Alarmists Intimidate Dissenting Scientists into Silence, Wall Street Journal, Apr. 12, 2006
  34. Christy, J. R., IPCC - Cherish It, Tweak It, or Scrap It?, Nature, Vol. 463, 11 February 2010.
  35. Moore, P., Natural Resource Adaptation: Protecting Ecosystems and Economies, Statement Before the US Senate, Washington DC, 2014, pp. 1-52
  36. Schmitt, H. H. and Happer, W., In Defense of Carbon Dioxide, The Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2013
  37. Ridgwell, A. J. and Watson A. J., Is the Spectral Signature of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle Consistent with a Milankovitch Origin?, Paleo-oceanography, Vol. 14, 1999, No.4, pp. 437-440,
  38. Winograd, I. J. and Landwehr , J.M., A Response to "Milankovitch Theory Viewed from Devils Hole" by J. Imbrie, C. Mix and D. G. Martinson, U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 93-357, Reston, Virginia,1993
  39. Easterbrook, D. J., Evidene for Providing Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades, Global Research, September 26, 2015.
  40. Oppenheimer, M., Global Warming and the Stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, Vol. 393, 28 May 1998, pp. 325-332.
  41. Ball, T., Alarmists Use Weather to Promote Global Warming Hoax, Friends of Science, July 7, 2008
  42. Gray, W., Is Human Activity Primarily Responsible for Global Climate Change? MIT Professor's Climate Change Op-Ed Proven False," April 7, 2010, www.globalwarmingheartland.org
  43. Soon, W., Implications of the Secondary Role of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Forcing in Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future, Physical Geography,Vol. 28, No. 2, Nov. 2007, pp. 97-125
  44. *** Climate Change Controversies-A Simple Guide, The Royal Society RS1420, London 2008.
PDF VERSION [DOWNLOAD]
Scientific uncertainties feed scepticism on climate change

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence