## THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

### Thermal Science - Online First

online first only
### Time dependent prediction of monthly global solar radiation and sunshine duration using exponentially weighted moving average in southeastern of Turkey

**ABSTRACT**

This paper proposes a new approach for prediction of Global Solar Radiation and Sunshine Duration based on earlier years of data for the eastern region of Turkey which has a high potential of solar energy. The proposed method predicts the basic parameters using time series and an analysis method. This method is Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). This model estimates next years’ Global Solar Radiation and Sunshine Duration and is evaluated by statistical parameters, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Coefficient of Determination, (R2) to examine the success of the proposed technique. In our study, the result shows that this method is effective in predicting Global Solar Radiation and Sunshine Duration as regards of MAPE and R2. The calculated MAPEs which are between 0 - 10 kWh/m2 per day were assumed excellent and R2s were found significant per every year.

**KEYWORDS**

PAPER SUBMITTED: 2016-01-07

PAPER REVISED: 2016-08-06

PAPER ACCEPTED: 2016-09-20

PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2016-10-01

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