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INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON FIRE RISK IN DJERDAP NATIONAL PARK (SERBIA): A CASE STUDY OF SEPTEMBER 2011

ABSTRACT
The Djerdap National Park in Serbia is vulnerable to fires. The variability of a fire in the Djerdap National Park is studied depending on the impact of climatic conditions. The influence was investigated on a yearly, monthly, and daily basis using data recorded at the meteorological station Veliko Gradiste. Data were analyzed for two periods: 1961-1990 and 1991-2017, and for the year of 2011. Special attention is devoted to the conditions for the emergence of the largest forest fire in the Djerdap National Park in September 2011. In this study, the Angstrom index, the Nesterov index, and method of deficit and surplus of precipitation are used to predict the risk of fire. There was an increased danger of fire in the forests in the period of 1991-2017 compared to the period of 1961-1990. Indices showing fire risk are increased for the months of June, July, and August. The September 2011 is characterized by an increase of average monthly air temperature by 3.7°C and a reduction of the total monthly rainfall of 32.3 mm compared to a long-term average value which favorable influenced to the occurrence of large forest fires. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 176013]
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2019-09-05
PAPER REVISED: 2020-01-15
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2020-02-07
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2020-03-08
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI190905094Z
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2020, VOLUME 24, ISSUE 5, PAGES [2845 - 2855]
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© 2020 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence