THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS OF THE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT - POSSIBILITIES AND CHALLENGES

ABSTRACT
In this paper the possibilities, disadvantages and benefits of long-term planning of energy development, are analysed. The factors influencing the development of energy and the factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting of the future development of energy are presented. The uncertainties that make the differences in modelling on a global scale, as well as the uncertainties that make the differences in modelling of the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia are also presented. Sensitivity analysis of the influence of different factors on the development of energy in the Republic of Macedonia was carried out. For those purposes the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia for the period up to 2035 year is calculated by using MARKAL model. The main features of the MARKAL model are also presented.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2016-01-26
PAPER REVISED: 2016-01-26
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2016-01-27
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2016-01-30
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI160126017K
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2016, VOLUME 20, ISSUE Supplement 1, PAGES [S69 - S75]
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© 2019 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence