International Scientific Journal


The study of climate changes is most often based on the analysis of time series of temperature and precipitation in urban areas and the increase in the emission of gases having a greenhouse effect. On the other hand, the selection of representative and relevant stations and comprehensive analysis of climate indicators lead to better and more exact assessments on climate changes at the regional level. In order to connect climate changes with agricultural, biological, socio-economic and tourism databases, the paper deals with the dynamic analysis of changes in thermal component expressed through the values of regional climate indices in four climatological stations with different geographical positions in Serbia. There are significant differences between the two time series data (1961-1990 and 1991-2013) on temperature and humidity, precipitation, insolation and wind speed. However, after using the climatic indices as a tool for assessing climate changes, the results of the study suggest the relative influence of the thermal component on the change of climate indices, with a slight increase in the index of significance for human activities. Relying on the results of this alternative approach to the study of climate changes, the fact remains that the climate is not fixed but highly variable factor that should be taken into consideration in terms of monitoring, evaluation and management of the area. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176008 i br. III47007]
PAPER REVISED: 2015-06-11
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2015-06-15
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Supplement 2, PAGES [S391 - S403]
  1. Lockwood, J.G., Abrupt and sudden climatic transitions and fluctations: a review, International Journal of Climatology, 21 (2001), pp. 1153-1179
  2. Rivas-Martinez, S., et al., Worldwide bioclimatic classification system, Global Geobotany, 1 (2011), pp. 1-634
  3. Solanki, S.K., et al., Evolution of the Sun's large-scale magnetic filed since the Maunder minimum, Nature, 408 (2000)., pp. 445-447
  4. Solanki, S.K., et al., Unusual acitivity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11.000 years, Nature, 431 (2004), pp. 1084-1087
  5. ***, ESA. CryoSat,
  6. Hobbs, W.R., et al., New Perspectives in Observed and Simulated Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Trends Using Optimal Fingerprinting Techniques, Journal of Climate, 28(2015), 4, 1543-1560
  7. adovanović, M., he increasing of the ice surface in the Arctic - is this also the consequence of Global Warming?, Journal of the Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic" SASA, 64 (2014), 3, pp. 383-386
  8. ***, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
  9. Southworth, J., et al., Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the Midwestern United States, Agricultural Ecosystems & Environment, 82 (2000), pp. 139-158
  10. Southworth, J., et al., Changes in soybean yields in the Midwestern United States as a result of future changes in climate, climate variability, and CO2 fertilization, Climate Change, 53 (2002), pp. 447-475
  11. Murphy, J., Predictions of climate change over Europe using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, International Journal of Climatology, 20 (2000), pp. 489-501
  12. McGuffie, K., Henderson-Sellers, A. Forty years of numerical climate modelling, International Journal of Climatology, 21 (2001)., pp. 1067-1109
  13. Palutikof, J.P., et al., The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part I: comparison of model data with observations, Journal of Climatology, 10 (1997), pp. 2497-2513.
  14. Matzarakis, A., Climate change and adaptation at regional and local scale, in: Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions Bridging Tourism Theory and practice (Ed. Jafari, J., Liping, C.A.), Emerald Insight, London, 2010, pp. 237-259
  15. Gavilan, R., et al., Variaciones bioclimaticas en Madrid: un estudio sobre el cambio climatico local, in: Vegetacion y Cambios Climaticos (Ed. Gomez Mercado, F., Mota Poveda J.F.), Servantes publication, Univesidad de Almeria, Almeria, 2001, pp. 243-256.
  16. Anđelković, G., Anthropogenic heat release in the atmosphere of Belgrade, Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 82 (2002), 2, pp. 56-67 (in Serbian)
  17. Anđelković, G., Belgrade heat island - characteristics, causes, consequences, Geografski fakultet, Beograd, 2005 (in Serbian)
  18. Deniz, A., et al., Spatial variations of climate indices in Turkey, International Journal of Climatology, 31 (2011), pp. 394-403
  19. Kioutsioukis, I., et al., Statistical assessment of changes in climate extremes over Greece (1955-2002), International Journal of Climatology, 30 (2010), pp. 1723-1737
  20. Sanchez-Lonrenzo, et al., Spatial and temporal trends in sunshine duration over Western Europe (1938-2004), Journal of Climate, 21 (2008), 22, pp. 6089-6098
  21. Chiacchio, M., Wild, M., Influence of NAO and clouds on long-term seasonal variations of surface solar radiation in Europe, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (2010), D00D22, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012182
  22. Matuszko, D., Weglarczyk, S., Relationship between sunshine duration and air temperature and conteporary global warming, International Journal of Climatology,(2014), doi: 10.1002/joc.4238
  23. Kržić, A., et al., Changes in climate indicies for Serbia according to the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2 scenarios, Climate Research, 49 (2011), pp. 73-86
  24. adovanović, M., et al., Global climate changes - antidgomatron, Geographica Panonica, 10 (2006), pp. 9-13
  25. Unkasević, M., ošić, I., rends in temperature indicies over Serbia: relationship to large scale circulation patterns, International Journal of Climatology, 33 (2013), 15, pp. 3152-3161
  26. Laprise, R., Regional climate modeling, Journal of Computational Physics, 227 (2008), pp. 3641-3666
  27. Ducić, V., et al., Atmospheric circulation and the precipitation variability in Serbia for period 1949-2004, Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 90 (2010), 2, pp. 85-96 (in Serbian)
  28. azić, ., et al., Analysis of the Temperature Characteristics and Trends in Novi Sad Area (Vojvodina, Serbia), Geographica Pannonica, 10 (2006), pp. 14-21
  29. Nikolić, J., et al., Atmospheric natural disasters in Serbia - management experience and economic effects, Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 63 (2013), 3, pp. 239-254
  30. Unkašević, M., ošić, I. Seasonal analysis of cold and heat waves in Serbia during the period 1949-2012, Theoretical and Appled Climatology, 120 (2015), 1-2, pp. 29-40
  31. Unkašević, M., ošić I. An analysis of heat waves in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 65 (2009), 1-2, pp. 17-26
  32. Anđelković, G.,Climatic e tremes in Serbia: Definitions, types and classification, Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 90 (2010), 4, pp. 125-146 (in Serbian)
  33. Pecelj, M., et al., Bioklimatski indeks: toplotno opterećenje (H ) u funkciji zdravstvenog turizma na primeru Zlatibora i Beograda, Proceedings, Zbornik radova sa međunarodnog naučnog skupa „Problemi i izazovi savremene geografske nauke i nastave", Kopaonik, Srbija, 2010, pp. 621-626
  34. edžić, V., Uticaj globalnog zagrevanja na turistička kretanja u turističkom centru „Brezovica", Ecologica: nauka, privreda, iskustva, 71 (2013), pp. 559-562
  35. UNWTO, UNEP, WMO (group of authors), Climate change and tourism - responding to global challenges, United Nations World Tourism Organization, Madrid, 2008
  36. Maddison, D., In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change of flows of British tourists, in:The amenity value of the global climate (Ed. D. Maddison), Earthscan, London, 2001, pp. 53-76
  37. McKercher, B., Lew, A., Tourist flows and the spatial distribution of tourists, in: A companion to tourism (Ed.Lew A. et al.), Blackwell Publishing LTD, London, 2004, pp. 36-48
  38. Hamilton, J.M., et al., Effects of climate change on international tourism, Climate Research, 29 (2005), pp. 245-254
  39. Koenig, U., Abegg, B., Climate changes and winter tourism in the Swiss Alps,Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 5(1997), 1, pp. 46-58
  40. Moreno, A., Climate change and tourism - impacts and vulnerability in coastal Europe, Ph.D. thesis, Maastricht: Universitaire Pers Maastricht, Netherlands, 2010
  41. Belen Gomez, M., Weather, climate and tourism - a geographical perspective, Annals of Tourism Research, 32 (2005), 3, pp. 571-591
  42. de Freitas, C.R., Tourism climatology: evaluating environmental information for decision making and business planning in the recreation and tourism sector, International Journal of Biometeorology, 48 (2003), pp. 45-54
  43. Gonzalez, R.R., et al., Experimental evaluation of standard effective temperature - a new biometeorological inde of man's thermal discomfort, International Journal of Biometeorology, 18 (1974), pp. 1-15
  44. Scott, D., et al., Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America, Climate Research, 27 (2004), pp. 105-117
  45. Matzarakis, A., Endler, C., Climate change and urban bioclimate: Adaptation possibilities. Proceedings,The seventh International Conference on Urban Climate, 29 June - 3 July 2009, Yokohama, Japan, 2009
  46. Berritella, M., et al., A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Working Paper FNU-49, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg, Germany, 2004
  47. Callaway, J.M., et al., Economic effects of climate changes in Montenegro: first view, UNDP office in Montenegro, Podgorica, 2010 (in Serbian)
  48. Scott, D., Lemieux, C., Weather and Climate Information for Tourism, Procedia Environmental Sciences, 1 (2010), pp. 146-183
  49. Joksimović, M., et al., Tourism climatic index in the valorisation of climate in tourist centers of Montenegro, Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 93 (2013), 1, pp. 15-34 (in Serbian)
  50. Mieczkowski, Z., The tourism climatic index: a method of evaluating world climates for tourism, The Canadian Geographer, 29 (1985), pp. 220-233
  51. Amelung, B., Viner, D., Mediteranean tourism: exploring the future with the tourism climatic index, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14 (2006), 4, pp. 349-366
  52. Perch-Nielsen, S.L., et al., Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily tourism climatic index, Climatic Change, 103 (2010), pp. 363-381
  53. Aćimović, S., et al., Master plan of Zlatibor-Zlatar tourist destination, Univerzitet Singidunum - Fakultet za turistički i hotelijerski menadžment, Beograd, 200 (in Serbian)
  54. ***, ECOSIGN (2007), Master plan Stara Planina, (in Serbian)
  55. ***, Horwath HTL (2009) - Master plan of Kopaonik tourist resort - final report of business Master plan, Beograd: Ministarstvo ekonomije i regionalnog razvoja Republike Srbije, (in Serbian)
  56. ***, USTC (2007) -Master plan of tourism development with business plan for Tara mountain and its suroundings. Bajina Bašta: Ustanova Sportsko-turistički centar, (in Serbian)
  57. Mihailović, D. ., et al., Climate change effects on crop yields in Serbia and related shifts of Köppen climate zones under the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2, International Journal of Climatology, (2014), doi: 10.1002/joc.4209
  58. Davies, N.E., An optimum summer weather index, Weather, 23 (1968), 8, pp. 305-317
  59. ***, Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia - RHMZ,
  60. Hamilton, J.M., et al., Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Working Paper FNU-31, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg, Germany, 2003

© 2019 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence