THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

THE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITIES AN OCCURRENCE OF THE FOREST FIRES IN SOUTH EUROPE

ABSTRACT
In mid-July 2012, hundreds of fires spread over forest stands in the south of Europe. Considering available satellite and meteorological data we have tried to determine a method using analogy, whether these fires were preceded by the intensified solar activity. The justification of this approach lies in the belief that it is impossible by direct or indirect activity of man to set fire at the same time to the sites that are geographically separated. In this paper we have tried to test the hypothesis claiming that charged particles coming to us from the Sun may be responsible for the number of forest fires. Unlike some other situations when the potential explanation could be a sudden influx of the protons of different energy ranges, in our study, there are electrons as carriers of the potential explanation. Many previous studies results have shown that there is statistically significant relationship between the processes on the Sun and certain movements of air masses in the atmosphere our planet. The presented results in this paper of the correlation relationships between the mean hourly flows of electrons and the mean hourly air temperatures in Belgrade and Rome and the analysis of the synoptic situation as a function of the suggested model so far, indicate that the number of fires that were occurring more than a week, from July 15, 2012, in the south of Europe, were caused by electrons coming from the Sun. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007 i br. OI 176008]
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2013-09-30
PAPER REVISED: 2014-03-05
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2014-03-20
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2014-04-05
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI130930036R
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE 2, PAGES [435 - 446]
REFERENCES
  1. Rowell A, Moore F.P. Global Review of Forest Fires. WWF; IUCN, 2000;64.
  2. Gorte W.R. Forest Fire/Wildfire Protection. CRS Report for Congress (Received through the CRS Web), Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, 2006; Order Code RL30755.
  3. Ducić V, Milenković M, Radovanović M. Contemporary climate variability and forest fires in Deliblatska Peščara. J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic, 2008;58:59-73.
  4. Radovanović M, Milovanović B, Gomes J.F.P. Endangerment of undeveloped areas of Serbia by forest fires. J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic. 2009;59(2):17-35.
  5. Kourtz P.H, Todd J.B. Predicting the daily occurrence of lightning-caused forest fires. Forestry Canada Information Report, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, 1991;PI-X-112.
  6. Krawchuk A.M, Cumming G.S, Flannigan D.M, Wein W.R. Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixed wood boreal forest. Ecology, 2006;87(2):458-468.
  7. Hall L.B. Precipitation associated with lightning-ignited wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico. Int J Widland Fire, 2007;16(2):242-254.
  8. Linn R.R. Numerical simulations of grass fires using a coupled atmosphere-fire model: Dynamics of fire spread. J Geophys Res, 2007;112:D05108.
  9. Csiszar I, Denis L, Giglio L, Justice O.C, Hewson J., Global fire activity from two years of MODIS data. Int J Wildland Fire, 2005;14(2):117-130.
  10. Conard G.S,Sukhinin I.A,Stocks J.B,Cahoon R.D,Davidenko P.E,Ivanova A.G.,Determining Effects of Area Burned and Fire Severity on Carbon Cycling and Emissions in Siberia.Climatic Change,2002;55(1-2):197-211.
  11. Gorte W.R. Forest Fire Protection. CRS Report for Congress (Received through the CRS Web). Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, 2000; Order Code RL30755.
  12. Goldammer G.J. Towards International Cooperation in Managing Forest Fire Disasters in the Mediterranean Region. International Forest Fire News/GFMC 2002;27:81-89.
  13. Nikolov N. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 - Report on fires in the Balkan Region. Forestry Department, FAO of the UN, Fire Management Working Papers FM/11/E, 2006, Rome (www.fao.org/forestry/site/fire-alerts/en).
  14. Stevančević M, Radovanovic M, Štrbac D. Solar Wind and the Magnetospheric Door as Factor of Atmospheric Processes. Second International Conference ''Global Changes and New Chellenges of 21st Century, 22-23 April 2005. Sofia, Bulgaria, 2006;88-94.
  15. Mukherjee S, Radovanović M. Influence of the Sun in the Genesis of Tornadoes. The IUP Journal of Earth Sciences, 2011;5(1):7-21.
  16. Radovanović M, Stevančević M, Štrbac D. A contribution to the study of the influence of the energy of Solar wind upon the atmospheric processes. J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic. 2003;53:1-18.
  17. Lepidi S, Santarelli L, Cafarella L, Palangio P. The Earth's passage of coronal mass eject on October 29-31, 2003: ULF geomagnetic field fluctuations at very high latitude. Memorie della Società Astronomica Italiana, 2005;76:998-1001.
  18. Gomes J.F.P, Radovanović M. Solar activity as a possible cause of large forest fires - а case study: Analysis of the Portuguese forest fires. Sci Total Eenviron, 2008;394(1):197-205.
  19. Pereira M.G, Trigo R.M, da Camara C.C, Pereira J.M.C, Leite S.M. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agr Forest Meteorol, 2005;129:11-25.
  20. Komitov B. The Sun, Climate and Their Changes in Time. Nauka, 2005;XV, 1(6):28-39.
  21. Lilensten J, Bornarel J., Space Weather, Environment and Societies, Springer Ltd. 2006,DOI:10.1007/1-4020-4332-5.
  22. Mukherjee S. Cosmic Influence on Sun-Earth Environment. Sensors 2008;8:7736-52.
  23. Radovanović M. Solar Activity - Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Mountain Regions. In the book: Sustainable Development in Mountain Regions (Chapter 2). Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011;9-17.
  24. Verdon C.D, Kiem S.A, Franks W.S. Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia. Int J Wildland Fire 2004;13(2):165-171.
  25. Troshichev O.A, Janzhura A. Temperature alterations on the Antarctic ice sheet initiated by the disturbed solar wind. J Atmos Sos-Terr Phy, 2004;66:1159-72.
  26. Giorgieva K, Kirov B, Tonev P, Guineva V, Atanasov D. Long-term variations in the correlation between NAO and solar activity: The importance of north-south solar activity asymmetry for atmospheric circulation. Adv Space Res, 2007;40:1152-66.
  27. McKenzie D, Hessl A.E, Peterson L.D, Agee K.J, Lehmkuhl F.J, Kellogg B.L-K, Kernan J. Fire and climatic Variability in the Inland Pacific Northwest: Integrating Science and Management. 2004; Final report to the Joint Fire Science Program on Project #01-1-6-01.
  28. Milovanović B, Radovanović М. The Connections between Solar Activity and the Circulation of Atmosphere in the 1891-2004 period (in Serbian). J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic. 2009;59(1):35-48.
  29. Tinsley A. B., Yu F., Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links between Solar Activity and Climate. In AGU monograph: Solar Variability and Its Effects on theEarth's Atmospheric and Climate System. AGU press, Washington, DC, 2004;321-340.
  30. Baldwin M.P, Dunkerton T.J., Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 2001,294:581-584.
  31. Boberg F., Solar wind electric field modulation of the NAO: A correlation analysis in the lower atmosphere, Geophys Res Lett, 2003;30(15)1825.
  32. Gabis I.P, Troshichev O.A. Influence of short-term changes in solar activity on baric field perturbations in the stratosphere and troposphere. J Atmos Sol-Terr Phy, 2000;62:725-735.
  33. Black R.X., Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the Arctic Oscillation. J. Climate, 2002;15:268-277.
  34. Radovanović M. b) The Basic Settings of Heliocentric Climate Model. International Conference "Regional Responses to Global Environmental Change in North-East and Central Asia". Plenary Session, 17-21. September, 2012, Irkutsk; Abstract book, (1);52-54.
  35. Nikolić J, Radovanović M, Milijašević D. An Astrophysical Analysis of Weather Based on the Solar Wind Parameters. Nucl Technol Radiat. 2010;25(3):171-78.
  36. Radovanović M, Lukić V, Todorović N. Heliocentric Electromagnetic Long-Term Weather Forecast and its Applicable Significance. J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic. 2005;54(1):5-18.
  37. Radovanović M. Forest fires in Europe from July 22nd to 25th 2009. Arch. Biol. Sci. 2010;62(2):419-24.
  38. Weng H. Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate. Part I: Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes. Adv Atmos Sci 2012;29(4):867-886.
  39. Ogurtsov M.G, Raspopov O.M, Oinonen M, Jungner H, Lindholme M. Possible Manifestation of Nonlinear Effects When Solar Activity Affects Climate Changes. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2010;50(1):15-20.

© 2020 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence