THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

SIMULATION MODEL: SUPPORT TO INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING IN THE COAL INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT
The paper deals with the problem of using coal as an energy resource bearing in mind the requirements of the modern society. Necessary changes in the coal industry demand a certain level of investments. Making relevant investment decisions is of crucial importance for the future efficiency of the system mine-power plant. The proposed model incorporates the procedure of decision-making simulation under the conditions of uncertain parameters. Net Present Value is used as the main criterion in decision-making. Different functions of probability distribution (normal, uniform and triangular distribution) are applied for the estimation of uncertainties related to certain parameters. For others, the estimation of future conditions is based on the Monte Carlo method and the simulation of geometric Brownian motion.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2009-10-30
PAPER REVISED: 2010-06-18
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2010-06-20
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI091030008G
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2010, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 3, PAGES [835 - 844]
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© 2019 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence