THERMAL SCIENCE
International Scientific Journal
SELF ORGANIZED CRITICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
ABSTRACT
Meadows, Randers, and Meadows developed a computer model, which studied relations between global resources, production, and consumption. Their model solves a simple system of ordinary differential equations under different scenarios and predicts the future of variables like population, food production, and various measures of pollution and use of resources. Due to the complexities of the observed system, such a simple model can not take into account all significant parameters and therefore cannot be used for accurate long term predictions. Therefore we developed a neural network based model, which we tested with historical data to reproduce the Meadows results. We also used this model to cluster countries based on similarity as measured by the observed variables in an attempt to predict, which characteristics are most significant for their development.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2008-03-03
PAPER REVISED: 2008-08-01
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2008-09-14
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR
2008, VOLUME
12, ISSUE
Issue 4, PAGES [113 - 120]
- Meadows, D. H., Randers, J., Meadows, D. L., Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green Publishing Company, New York, USA, 2004
- Meadows, D. H., Randers, J., Meadows, D. L., Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future, Chelsea Green Publishing Company, New York, USA, 1993
- ***, Climate Change, The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (Ed. J. T. Houghton), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001, see also: www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm
- Meadows, D. L., World3 Model, University of New Hampshire, Durham, N. C., USA, see also: www.unh.edu/ipssr/index.html
- Lu, J., et al., Adaptive Networks, in Cognitive Networks: Towards Self-Aware Networks, (Ed. Qusay H. Mahmoud), John Wiley & Sons, West Sussex, UK, 2007
- ***, Central Intelligence Agency, The 2008 World Factbook, Skyhorse Publishing, 2007, see also www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook, 2008