THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Authors of this Paper

External Links

GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER CLIMATE CHANGE PHENOMENA ON THE GEOLOGICAL TIME SCALE

ABSTRACT
Global warming and other climate change phenomena became a worldwide exploited subject over recent decades. World science has made enormous progress in understanding past climate change and its causes, and continues to study current and potential impacts that will affect people in the future. All scientists agree that the Earth's climate is changing due to natural phenomena, and most of them argue that human activities are increasing the greenhouse effect, while some scientists attribute climate changes exclusively to the natural causes. Though there still is, and always will be, need for multiple lines of research on an extremely complex system like Earth's climate is, an immediate consensus is crucial for decision-makers to place climate change in the context of other large challenges facing the world today. This paper discusses the existing body of evidence on climate changes in the past, and uncertainties that prevent scientists to reach full consensus on how climate might change in the future. It extends the time scale of climate changes over the entire history of Earth to help better understanding of hypothetical changes and their consequences that could be expected both in the near and in a very distant future.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2019-02-08
PAPER REVISED: 2019-08-08
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2019-08-19
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2019-09-15
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI190208320M
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2019, VOLUME 23, ISSUE Supplement 5, PAGES [S1435 - S1455]
REFERENCES
  1. Simon-Lewis, A., What is Climate Change? The Definition, Causes and Effects, Climate Change, 2017, www.wired.co.uk/article/what-is-climate-change-definition-causes-effects
  2. *** What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change, NASA, Retrieved 23 July 2016
  3. *** The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UN, New York, 21 March 1994
  4. Sellers, P., Space, Climate Change, and the Real Meaning of Theory, Elements, 17.08. 2016
  5. *** IPCC Synthesis Report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, 2014, p. 151
  6. Mesarović, M., Scientific Uncertainties Feed Scepticism on Climate Change, Thermal Science, 19 (2015), Suppl. 2, pp. S259-S278
  7. Croll, J. Climate and Time in Their Geological Relations: A Theory of Secular Changes of the Earth's Climate, New York, Appleton, 1885, Online, Retrieved 12 February 2018
  8. Wuebbles, D.J.et al. (eds.), Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington DC, 2017, 470 pp 10-11
  9. Marshall M., Humans Could Turn Earth into a Hothouse, New Scientist, 212 (2011), 2839, pp.
  10. Hansen J. et al., Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level and Atmospheric CO2, Royal Society Publishing, London, 2013, p. 371
  11. *** Global Mean Temperature Changes from 1880 to 2017 Relative to the 1951-1980 Mean, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2018, data.gis.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
  12. Tans, P., Monthly Mean CO2 Concentration, Mauna Loa, 1958-2017, NOAA/ESRL, 2018 www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/, Retrieved 11 February 2018
  13. Millero, F. J., Thermodynamics of the CO2 System in the Oceans, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 59 (1995), 4, pp. 661-677
  14. Solomon, S. et al., Irreversible Climate Change due to CO2 Emissions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106 (2009), 6, pp. 1704-1709
  15. Royer, D. L., CO2-Forced Climate Thresholds During the Phanerozoic, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 70 (2006), 23, pp. 5665-5675
  16. Svensmark, H., et al., Cosmic Ray Decreases Affect Atmospheric Aerosols and Clouds, Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (2009), 15
  17. Frieling, J. et al., Thermogenic Methane Release as a Cause for the Long Duration of the PETM, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.113 (2016), 43, pp.12059-12064
  18. Price, G. et al., A Comparison of GCM Simulated Cretaceous „Greenhouse‟ and „Icehouse‟ Climates: Implications for the Sedimentary Record, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 142 (1998), pp. 123-138
  19. Mesarović, M., Prevention of Climate Change Beyond the Year 2012, Termotehnika, 36 (2010), 1, pp. 1-9
  20. Dlugokencky, E., Annual Mean CO2 Data, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, 5 February 2016, Retrieved 12 February 2016
  21. Tans, P., Trends in CO2, NOAA/ESRL, Retrieved 12 February 2018
  22. Myhre, G., et al., Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of WG I to the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013
  23. *** IPCC Fifth Assessment Report - Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter 08_FINAL.pdf
  24. Falkowski, P. et al., The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System, Science, 290 (2000), 5490, pp. 291-296
  25. Rothman, D. H. et al., Dynamics of the Neoproterozoic Carbon Cycle, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences U.S.A., 100 (2003), 14, pp. 124-129
  26. Nakazawa, T. et al., Temporal and Spatial Variations of the Carbon Isotopic Ratio of Atmospheric CO2 in the Western Pacific Region, Journal of Geophysical Research, 102 (1997), 1271
  27. Platt, U. et al., Hemispheric Average Cl Atom Concentration from 13C/12C Ratios in Atmospheric Methane, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 4 (2004), 9/10, 2393
  28. Eggleton, R. A. and Eggleton, T., A Short Introduction to Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013, p. 52
  29. Kunzig, R.T., Climate Milestone: Earth‟s CO2 Level Passes 400 ppm, National Geographic. 2013, Retrieved 12 May 2013
  30. *** New CO2 Data Helps Unlock the Secrets of Antarctic Formation, Physorg.com, 13(2009)1
  31. *** Up-to-date Weekly Average CO2 at Mauna Loa, NOAA, Retrieved 11 May 2016
  32. *** GCOS Atmospheric Composition ECV: Methane (CH4) and Other Long-Lived Green House Gases, Global Observing Systems Information Center, 2011, Archived 8 March 2012
  33. Forster, P. et al., Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva, 2007
  34. Keppler, F.; et al., Methane Emissions from Terrestrial Plants Under Aerobic Conditions, Nature, 439 (2006), 7073, pp. 187-191
  35. Swanson K. L. and Tsonis, A. A., Has the Climate Recently Shifted?, Geophysical Research Letters, AGU Publications, 36(2009)1
  36. *** Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, U.S. National Research Council, National Academies Press, 2006, ISBN 978-0-309-10225-4
  37. *** Solar Irradiance Changes and the Relatively Recent Climate: Solar Influences on Global Change, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C, 1994. p. 36, ISBN 0-309-05148-7
  38. Willson, R. C. and Hudson, H.S., The Sun‟s Luminosity Over a Complete Solar Cycle, Nature, 351, (1999), 6321, pp. 142-44
  39. Bard, E. et al., Solar Irradiance During the Last 1200 Years Based on Cosmogenic Nuclides, Tellus B, 52 (2000), 3, pp. 985-992
  40. Muszkat, O., The Outline of the Problems and Methods Used for Research of the History of the Climate in the Middle Age, Przemyśl, 2014, ISSN 1232-7263
  41. Owens, M. J et al., The Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age: An Update from Recent Reconstructions and Climate Simulations, Space Weather Space Climate, 7 (2017), A33
  42. Lindsey, R., Global Sea Level, NOAA, August 30, 2009, Retrieved 12 March 2018
  43. Miller, B., Satellite Observations Show Sea Levels Rising, and Climate Change is Accelerating It, edition.cnn.com/2018/02/12/world/sea-level-rise-accelerating/index.html
  44. *** Volcanic Gases and Their Effects, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, 2006
  45. *** Volcanic Gases and Climate Change Overview, www.usgs.gov. Retrieved 31 July 2014
  46. Oppenheimer, C., Climatic, Environmental and Human Consequences of the Largest Known Historic Eruption: Tambora Volcano (Indonesia) 1815, Progress in Physical Geography, 27 (2003), 2, pp. 230-259
  47. *** Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation, University of Montana, Archived from the original on 16 July 2011, Retrieved 2 March 2018
  48. Milanković, M., Canon of Insolation and the Ice Ages Problem, (in German), Serbian Royal Academy, Belgrade, 1941
  49. Gale, A. S., A Milankovitch Scale for Cenomanian Time, Terra Nova, 1 (1989), 5, pp.420-425
  50. Haug, G. H. and Keigwin, L. D., How the Isthmus of Panama Put Ice in the Arctic Ocean, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 42 (2004), 2, Retrieved 1 October 2016
  51. Feely, R. A. et al., Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 System in the Oceans, Science, 305 (2004), 5682, pp. 362-366
  52. Hileman, B., Ice Core Record Extended: Analyses of Trapped Air Show Current CO2 at Highest Level in 650,000 years, Chemical & Engineering News. 83 (2005), 48, p.7
  53. Caldeira, K. and Kasting, J. F., The Life Span of the Biosphere Revisited, Nature, 360 (1992), 6406, pp. 721-723
  54. Atri, D. and Melott, A. L., Cosmic Rays and Terrestrial Life: A Brief Review, Astroparticle Physics, 53 (2014), 1, pp. 186−190
  55. *** Drop in CO2 Levels Led to Polar Ice Sheet, Study Finds, Sciencedaily.com, 2 December 2011, Retrieved 14 May 2013
  56. Pavlov, A. A. et al., Greenhouse Warming by CH4 in the Atmosphere of Early Earth, Journal of Geophysical Research, 105 (2000), E5, pp. 1981-1990
  57. Bender, M. L. et al., Atmospheric O2/N2 Changes, 1993-2002: Implications for the Partitioning of Fossil Fuel CO2 Sequestration, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19 (2005), 4
  58. Marty, B., Water in the Early Earth, Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry, 62 (2006), pp. 421-450
  59. Sagan, C. and Chyba, C., The Early Faint Sun Paradox: Organic Shielding of Ultraviolet-Labile Greenhouse Gases, Science, 276 (1997), 5316, pp. 1217-1221
  60. Schopf, J., Earth's Earliest Biosphere: Its Origin and Evolution, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1983
  61. Sigman, D.M. and Boyle E.A., Glacial/Interglacial Variations in Atmospheric CO2, Nature, 407 (2000), 6806, pp. 859-869
  62. Kasting, J. F. and Siefert, J. L., Life and the Evolution of Earth's Atmosphere, Science, 296(2002)5570, pp. 1066-1068
  63. Zahnle, K. et al., Earth‟s Earliest Atmospheres, Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Biology, 2 (2010), 10
  64. Berner, R. A., Atmospheric Oxygen over Phanerozoic Time, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96 (1999), 20, pp. 10955-10957
  65. Lisiecki, L. E. and Raymo, M. E., Correction to A Pliocene-Pleistocene Stack of 57 Globally Distributed Benthic δ18O Records, Paleoceanography, 20 (2005), 2
  66. Veizer, J., 87Sr/86Sr, δ13C and δ18O Evolution of Phanerozoic Seawater, Chemical Geology, 161 (1999), pp. 59-88
  67. Walker, J. C. G., CO2 on the Early Earth, Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere, 16 (1985), 2, pp. 117-127
  68. Jouzel, J. et al., Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years, Science, Vol. 317 (2007), 5839, pp. 793-796
  69. Etheridge, D.M. et al., Historical CO2 Record Derived From a Spline Fit (20 Year Cutoff) of the Law Dome DE08 and DE08-2 Ice Cores, CO2 Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1998, Retrieved 12 June 2007
  70. Robert E. K., The Paleoproterozoic Snowball Earth: A climate Disaster Triggered by the Evolution of Oxygenic Photosynthesis, Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A., 102 (2005) 32, pp. 11131-11136
  71. Allen, P. A. and Etienne, J. L., Sedimentary Challenge to Snowball Earth, Nature Geoscience, 1 (2008), 12, pp. 817-825
  72. Harding, I., Greenhouse to Icehouse: Arctic Climate Change 55-33 Million Years Ago, Teaching Earth Sciences, 35 (2010), 1
  73. Crowley, T.J. et al., CO2 Levels Required for Deglaciation of a „Near-snowball‟ Earth, Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (2001), 2, pp. 283-286
  74. Knauth, L. P., Temperature and Salinity History of the Precambrian Ocean: Implications for the Course of Microbial Evolution, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 219 (2005), pp. 53-69.
  75. Norris, R. D. et al., Jiggling the Tropical Thermostat in the Cretaceous Hothouse, Geology, 30 (2002), pp. 299-302
  76. Jardine, P., The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Palaeontology Online, 1 (2011), 5, pp. 1-7
  77. Pierrehumbert, R. T., High Levels of Atmospheric CO2 Necessary for the Termination of Global Glaciation, Nature, 429 (2004), 6992, pp. 646-649
  78. Miles, M. G. et al., The Significance of Volcanic Eruption Strength and Frequency for Climate, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130 (2004), 602, pp. 2361-2376
  79. Smith, R. C., Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications, Computational Science and Engineering, 12 (2013), 1, p. 23
  80. Wignall, P., Large Igneous Provinces and Mass Extinctions, Earth-Science Review, 53 (2001), pp. 1-33
  81. Lambert, F. et al., Dust-Climate Couplings Over the Past 800,000 Years From the EPICA Dome C Ice Core, Nature, 452 (2008), 7187, pp. 616-619
  82. Broecker, W. S. and Denton, G. H., What Drives Glacial Cycles, Scientific American, January 1990, pp. 49-56
  83. Petit, J. R. et al., Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 Years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature, 399 (1999), 1, pp. 429-436
  84. Monnin, E. et al., Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Over the Last Glacial Termination, Science, 291 (2001), 5501, pp. 112-114
  85. Rhode, R.A., File: Holocene Temperature Variations.png, Retrieved 8 February 2018 from: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png
  86. Farmer, G. T. and Cook, J., Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis, Volume 1 -The Physical Climate, Springer Science+Business Media, Dordrecht, 2013
  87. Brugger, J. et al., Severe Environmental Effects of Chicxulub Impact Imply Key Role in EndCretaceous Mass Extinction, 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU2017 Conference Proceedings, Vienna, 23-28 April, 2017, pp. 1716-1717
  88. Hansen, J., Science Briefs: Earth‟s Climate History, NASA GISS, Retrieved 5 February 2018
  89. Archer, D. et al., Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel CO2, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 37 (2009), 1, pp. 117-134
  90. Morgan K., Even if Emissions Stop, Carbon Dioxide Could Warm Earth for Centuries, Princeton University, Nov. 24, 2013, www.princeton.edu/news/2013/11/24/even-ifemissions-stop-carbon-dioxide-could-warm-earth-centuries
  91. Soon, W., Quantitative Implications of the Secondary Role of Carbon Dioxide Climate Forcing in the Past Glacial-Interglacial Cycles for the Likely Future Climatic Impacts of Anthropogenic Greenhouse-Gas Forcings, Physical Geography, July 4, 2007
  92. *** Climate Sciences and Supercomputers, Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum, DKRZ, Hamburg, Retrieved 13 March 2018 from www.dkrz.de/about-en/aufgaben/hpc
  93. Bryan, K., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Man's Great Geophysical Experiment, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Retrieved 23 February 2018
  94. *** Runaway Climate Change, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_change
  95. Holy, N., Deserted Ocean: A Social History of Depletion, Authohouse, Bloomington, 2009
  96. Ridgway, A., Last Days of Earth: Life in 7 Billion Years AD, New Scientist, 4 May 2016
  97. .
  98. *** Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios, Retrieved on 11 March 2018 from: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation_scenarios
  99. Brook, B., Grim Scenarios on a 2 to 6 Degrees Celsius Hotter Earth, Brave New Climate, No. 18, September 2008
  100. *** IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 (ETP2014)-Harnessing Electricity's Potential, IEA Paris, France, 2014, 382 pages ISBN 978-92-64-20800-1, www.iea.org/etp2014
  101. Ganopolski, A. et al., Critical Insolation-CO2 Relation for Diagnosing Past and Future Glacial Inception, Nature, 529 (2016), 1, pp. 200-203
  102. Berger, A. and Loutre, M. F., Climate: An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?, Science, 297 (2002), 5585, pp. 1287-1288
  103. Ward, P. D. and Brownlee, D., The Life and Death of Planet Earth: How the New Science of Astrobiology Charts the Ultimate Fate of Our World, Henry Holt and Company, New York, Reprinted 2004, ISBN 10:0805075127
  104. Naseem S., No Trees - No Humans, Our Science, 12 April 2011
  105. Williams, M., Will Earth Survive When the Sun Becomes a Red Giant?, Universe Today, May 10, 2016

© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence