THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

GLOBAL WARMING IMPACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN SERBIA FOR THE PERIOD 1961-2100

ABSTRACT
Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate – fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest eco¬system, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation plan¬ning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2°C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2°C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9°C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4°C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high pre¬cipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropi¬cal climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III43007 and Grant no. TR37005]
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2018-04-11
PAPER REVISED: 2018-05-01
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2018-05-20
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2018-06-03
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI180411168V
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2018, VOLUME 22, ISSUE Issue 6, PAGES [2267 - 2280]
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© 2024 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence