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PREDICTION OF THE RETURN PERIOD OF DROUGHT IN PANJIAKOU HYDROLOGICAL STATION BY PEASON-III PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

ABSTRACT
Peason-III probability distribution is chosen to simulate monthly average runoff of Panjiakou hydrological station, and calculate the minimum value of monthly average runoff at different return periods throughout March, April, May, and the whole spring. The results show that minimum value of monthly average runoff was 85.59, 62.04, 50.24, 40.74, 30.33, 23.55, and 17.46 m3/s when return periods were fixed at 2, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. In addition, the fitting results were credible by comparing the observed return periods. The return periods of monthly average runoff of Panjiakou hydrological station in March, April, May, and the whole spring of 2001 were 147.00, 254.07, 1.80, and 34.07 years, respectively.
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PAPER SUBMITTED: 2015-01-16
PAPER REVISED: 2015-03-12
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2015-04-15
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2015-10-25
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI1504365Z
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE 4, PAGES [1365 - 1368]
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© 2019 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence