TY - JOUR
TI - The impact of the energy transition on China's economy under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal: A simulation analysis based on the CGE model
AU - Lu Yachen
AU - Dai Jiaquan
AU - Wang Lining
AU - Liu Yu
AU - Wu Chunfang
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2022
VL - 26
IS - 5
SP - 4043
EP - 4056
PT - Article
AB - With the acceleration of the global response to climate change, China  announced to the world in 2020 the goals of carbon peaking by 2030 and  carbon neutrality by 2060, which reflects its firm determination implement  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Energy transition is the key  to achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. It is of great  theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of low carbon  energy transition on China's macro-economy under the carbon peaking and  carbon neutrality goals. Based on three carbon neutrality scenarios, this  paper uses the dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate and  estimate the impact of different energy transition pathways on China's  macro-economy. The results show that under the carbon peaking and carbon  neutrality target, accelerating energy transition will have a certain  nega­tive impact on China's economic growth, and different energy transition  pathways have different impacts on the macro-economy. The sustainable  transformation scenario that promotes energy transformation through the  carbon tax policy to adjust carbon emission intensity and the renewable  energy incentive policy to reduce costs has the least negative impact on the  macro-economy, promoting employment growth, and optimizing industrial  structure to a certain extent in the process of energy transformation. In  conclusion, relevant policy recommendations are put forward for the  achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, and the  promotion of high quality economic development.