THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Thermal Science - Online First

online first only

Estimation of photovoltaic power generation potential in Serbia based on irradiance, air temperature, and wind speed data

ABSTRACT
This study is devoted to the research of spatial-temporal variation of electricity generation from the kilowatt-peak photovoltaic system made of crystalline silicon solar cells. The research was conducted in the territory of Serbia using the model for estimation photovoltaic performances as a function of incident irradiance and module temperature. Preparation of input data and calculation of the final results was done within the geographical information system. Some of the required raster data, like solar irradiance and wind speed, were already available, while air temperature raster was created from discrete set of observed data using the regression-kriging model. Obtained results were presented in the form of raster maps that enabled further analysis and discussion about new findings. The analysis of seasonal variations reveals that during spring and summer months photovoltaic systems are producing up to 70% of total annual electricity yield. In terms of the spatial distribution, the most promising areas for electricity generation are located in the south part of Serbia and along main river valleys. In addition, discussion part addresses the issue of data imperfection caused by the accuracy of the selected model, as well as quality and availability of data series. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III47007]
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2017-12-30
PAPER REVISED: 2018-05-27
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2018-05-29
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2018-06-03
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI171230164D
REFERENCES
  1. King, D. L., et al., Analysis of Factors Influencing the Annual Energy Production of Photovoltaic Systems, Proceedings of the 29th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, Piscataway, NJ, 2002, pp. 1356-1361
  2. Pavlović, T. M., et al., Comparison and Assessment of Electricity Generation Capacity for Different Types of PV Solar Plants of 1MW in Soko Banja, Serbia, Thermal Science, 15 (2011), 3, pp. 605-618, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI110322065P
  3. Radonjić, I. S., et al., Investigation of the Impact of Atmospheric Pollutants on Solar Module Energy Efficiency, Thermal Science, (2016), 00, pp. 176-176, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI160408176R
  4. Radivojević, A. R., et al., Influence of Climate and Air Pollution on Solar Energy Development in Serbia, Thermal Science, 19 (2015), Suppl. 2, pp. S311-S322, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI150108032R
  5. Pantić, L. S., et al., A Practical Field Study of Performances of Solar Modules at Various Positions in Serbia, Thermal Science, 19 (2015), Suppl. 2, pp. S511-S523, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI140313081P
  6. Šúri, M., et al., Potential of Solar Electricity Generation in the European Union Member States and Candidate Countries, Solar energy, 81 (2007), 10, pp. 1295-1305, DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2006.12.007
  7. Huld, T., et al., Mapping the Performance of PV Modules, Effects of Module Type and Data Averaging, Solar Energy, 84 (2010), 2, pp. 324-338, DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2009.12.002
  8. European Commission, Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_static/en/intro_tools.html#PVP
  9. Huld, T., Amillo, A. M. G., Estimating PV Module Performance over Large Geographical Regions: The Role of Irradiance, Air Temperature, Wind Speed and Solar Spectrum, Energies, 8 (2015), 6, pp. 5159-5181, DOI: 10.3390/en8065159
  10. Djurdjevic, D. Z., Perspectives and Assessments of Solar PV Power Engineering in the Republic of Serbia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15 (2011), 5, pp. 2431-2446, DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2011.02.025
  11. Huld, T., et al., A Power-Rating Model for Crystalline Silicon PV Modules, Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 95 (2011), 12, pp. 3359-3369, DOI: 10.1016/j.solmat.2011.07.026
  12. Luković, J., et al., High Resolution Grid of Potential Incoming Solar Radiation for Serbia, Thermal Science, 19 (2015), Suppl. 2, pp. S427-S435, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI150430134L
  13. Schneider, D. R., et al., Mapping the Potential for Decentralized Energy Generation based on RES in Western Balkans, Thermal Science, 11 (2007), 3, pp. 7-26, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI0703007S
  14. Samardzija, Dj., Doljak, D., The Potential of Massive PV Installation in Serbia, Proceedings of the ISES EuroSun 2016 Conference (Eds. V. Martínez, J. González), Palma de Mallorca, Spain, 2016, pp. 1656-1663
  15. Doljak, D., Stanojević, G., Evaluation of Natural Conditions for Site Selection of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Power Plants in Serbia, Energy, 127 (2017), May, pp. 291-300, DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.140
  16. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Comparative Overview of the Number of Population in 1948, 1953, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2002 and 2011: Data by Settlements, pod2.stat.gov.rs/ObjavljenePublikacije/Popis2011/Knjiga20.pdf
  17. Ministry of Mining and Energy of the Republic of Serbia, Energy Sector Development Strategy of the Republic of Serbia for the Period by 2025 with Projections by 2030 Republic, www.mre.gov.rs
  18. Gburčik, P., et al., Study of Energy Potential of Serbia for Utilizing Solar Radiation and Wind Energy (in Serbian), Report No. EE704-1052A, Institute for Multidisciplinary Research, Belgrade, Serbia, 2004
  19. Gburčik, V., et al., Assessment of Solar and Wind Energy Resources in Serbia, Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 5 (2013), 4, 041822, DOI: 10.1063/1.4819504
  20. International Finance Corporation (IFC), Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants, www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_content/ifc_external_corporate_site/sustainability-at-ifc/publications/publications_utility-scale+solar+photovoltaic+power+plants
  21. Ranganathan, S. K., et al., Numerical Model and Experimental Validation of the Heat Transfer in Air Cooled Solar Photovoltaic Panel, Thermal Science, 20 (2016), Suppl. 4, pp. S1071-S1081, DOI: 10.2298/TSCI16S4071R
  22. Kaldellis, J. K., et al., Temperature and Wind Speed Impact on the Efficiency of PV Installations. Experience Obtained from Outdoor Measurements in Greece, Renewable Energy, 66 (2014), June, pp. 612-624, DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2013.12.041
  23. Huld, T., et al., A new solar radiation database for estimating PV performance in Europe and Africa, Solar Energy, 86 (2012), 6, pp. 1803-1815, DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2012.03.006
  24. Sander + Partner, Wind Atlas Balkan, Munich, 2016, balkan.wind-index.com/
  25. Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Meteorological Yearbook - Climate Data 1981-2012, www.hidmet.gov.rs/latin/meteorologija/klimatologija_godisnjaci.php;
  26. de Jongh, J.A., Rijs, R.P.P. (Eds.), Wind Resources, www.arrakis.nl/documents/WindResources.pdf
  27. European Environment Agency, Corine Land Cover (CLC) 2012, Version 18.5.1, land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2012/view
  28. Silva, J., et al., Roughness Length Classification of Corine Land Cover Classes, Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference, Milan, Italy, 2007, Vol. 710, p. 110
  29. Plazinić, S., Tehnička meterologija (Technical Meteorology - in Serbian), Naučna knjiga, Belgrade, Serbia, 1985
  30. Conrad, O., et al., System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1.4. Geosci. Model Dev., 8 (2015), 7, pp. 1991-2007, DOI: 10.5194/gmdd-8-2271-2015
  31. United States Geological Survey, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 1 Arc-Second Global, earthexplorer.usgs.gov/
  32. Hengl, T., A Practical Guide to Geostatistical Mapping, spatial-analyst.net/book/system/files/Hengl_2009_GEOSTATe2c1w.pdf
  33. Faiman, D., Assessing the Outdoor Operating Temperature of Photovoltaic Modules, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 16 (2008), 4, pp. 307-315, DOI: 10.1002/pip.813
  34. Koehl, M., et al., Modeling of the Nominal Operating Cell Temperature Based on Outdoor Weathering, Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, 95 (2011), 7, pp. 1638-1646, DOI: 10.1016/j.solmat.2011.01.020
  35. King, D.L., et al., Photovoltaic Array Performance Model, Report No. SAND2004-3535, Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico, Albuquerque, 2004
  36. Friesen, G., et al., Intercomparison of Different Energy Prediction Methods Within the European Project "Performance" - Results of the 1st Round Robin, Proceedings, 22nd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Milan, Italy, 2007 pp. 2659-2663
  37. Joint Research Centre, Overview of PVGIS Data Sources and Calculation Methods, re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_static/methods.html
  38. Szalai, S., et al., Climate of the Greater Carpathian Region. Final Technical Report, www.carpatclim-eu.org
  39. Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Seasonal Bulletin for Serbia - Autumn 2016, www.hidmet.gov.rs/podaci/meteorologija/eng/j2016.pdf
  40. Jovanović, S., et al., The Impact of the Mean Daily Air Temperature Change on Electricity Consumption, Energy, 88 (2015), August, pp. 604-609, DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.001
  41. World Bank Group, Global Solar Atlas, globalsolaratlas.info/
  42. Kilibarda, M., et al., Spatio‐Temporal Interpolation of Daily Temperatures for Global Land Areas at 1 km Resolution, J Geophys Res Atmos, 119 (2014), 5, pp. 2294-2313, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020803
  43. Szymanowski, M. et al., Regression-Based Air Temperature Spatial Prediction Models: An Example from Poland, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 22 (2013), 5, pp. 577-585, DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0440
  44. Li, J., et al., A GIS-based approach for estimating spatial distribution of seasonal temperature in Zhejiang Province, China, Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE A,7 (2006), 4, pp. 647-656, DOI: 10.1631/jzus.2006.A0647
  45. Milovanović, B., et al., Climate Regionalization of Serbia According to Köppen Climate Classification, Journal of the Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, 67 (2017), 2, pp.103-114, DOI: 10.2298/IJGI1702103M
  46. Kalogirou, S. A., Solar Energy Engineering: Processes and Systems, Academic Press, 2013
  47. Prokić, M., Climate trends of temperature and precipitation in Nišava river valley (Serbia) for 1960-2015 period. Journal of the Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, 68 (2018), 1, pp. 35-50, DOI: 10.2298/IJGI1801035P