TY - JOUR
TI - Future trend analysis of precipitation in the Haihe River basin based on a method combining wavelet and rescaled range analyses
AU - Li Mei-Shui
AU - Yang Xiao-Hua
AU - Sun Bo-Yang
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2018
VL - 22
IS - 4
SP - 1571
EP - 1579
PT - Article
AB - Climate change has become an increasingly dominant environmental issue which  has been attracting more and more attention in recent years. It is necessary  to determine the cycle and trend of annual precipitation in the Haihe River  Basin in the context of climate change because it is the largest river system  in northern China. A combined method of rescaled range analysis and wavelet  analysis is applied to identify the cycle and trend in annual precipitation  based on data from 12 weather stations in the Haihe River Basin. The results  of wavelet analysis show that the 12 weather stations all have the long main  cycles of 35-38 years and the medium-length cycles of 22-25 years. Datong,  Yuanping, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Anyang, and Huimin stations have the  short-length cycles of 9-11 years. The results of rescaled range analysis  show that all of the Hurst exponents are greater than 0.5, which indicates  that the future trend of annual precipitation will very likely follow the  historical trend. Therefore, nine stations will have the downward trends, and  other stations will have the upward trends in the future, according to the  analysis of the historical trends by the method of wavelet analysis.