TY - JOUR
TI - Current long-term negative average annual energy balance of the earth leads to the new little ice age
AU - Abdussamatov Habibullo
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2015
VL - 19
IS - 12
SP - 279
EP - 288
PT - Article
AB - The average annual decreasing rate of the total solar irradiance (TSI) is  increasing from the 22-nd to the 23-rd and 24-th cycles, because the Sun  since the 1990 is in the phase decline of quasi-bicentennial variation. The  portion of the solar energy absorbed by the Earth is decreasing. Decrease in  the portion of TSI absorbed by the Earth since 1990 remains uncompensated by  the Earth's radiation into space at the previous high level over a time  interval determined by the thermal inertia of the Ocean. A long-term negative  deviation of the Earth’s average annual energy balance from the equilibrium  state is dictating corresponding variations in it’s the energy state. As a  result, the Earth will have a negative average annual energy balance also in  the future. This will lead to the beginning of the decreasing in the Earth's  temperature and of the epoch of the Little Ice Age after the maximum phase of  the 24-th solar cycle approximately since the end of 2014. The influence of  the consecutive chain of the secondary feedback effects (the increase in the  Bond albedo and the decrease in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the  atmosphere due to cooling) will lead to an additional reduction of the  absorbed solar energy and reduce the greenhouse effect. The start of the  TSI’s Grand Minimum is anticipated in the solar cycle 27±1 in 2043±11 and the  beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age for the  past 7,500 years around 2060±11.