TY - JOUR
TI - Exploring the impact of reduced hydro capacity and lignite resources on the Macedonian power sector development
AU - Taseska-Gjorgievska Verica
AU - Dedinec Aleksandar
AU - Markovska Natasa
AU - Pop-Jordanov Jordan
AU - Kanevče Gligor
AU - Goldstein Gary
AU - Pye Steve
JN - Thermal Science
PY - 2014
VL - 18
IS - 3
SP - 721
EP - 730
PT - Article
AB - The reference development pathway of the Macedonian energy sector highlights  the important role that lignite and hydro power play in the power sector,  each accounting for 40% of total capacity in 2021. In 2030, this dominance  continues, although hydro has a higher share due to the retirement of some of  the existing lignite plants. Three sensitivity runs of the MARKAL-Macedonia  energy system model have been undertaken to explore the importance of these  technologies to the system, considering that their resource may be reduced  with time: (1) Reducing the availability of lignite from domestic mines by  50% in 2030 (with limited capacity of imports), (2) Removing three large  hydro options, which account for 310 MW in the business-as-usual case, and  (3) Both of the above restrictions. The reduction in lignite availability is  estimated to lead to additional overall system costs of 0.7%, compared to  hydro restrictions at only 0.1%. With both restrictions applied, the  additional costs rise to over 1%, amounting to 348 M€ over the 25 year  planning horizon. In particular, costs are driven up by an increasing  reliance on electricity imports. In all cases, the total electricity  generation decreases, but import increases, which leads to a drop in capacity  requirements. In both, the lignite and the hydro restricted cases, it is  primarily gas-fired generation and imports that “fill the gap”. This  highlights the importance of an increasingly diversified and efficient  supply, which should be promoted through initiatives on renewables, energy  efficiency, and lower carbon emissions.