THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

Milan M. Radovanović

,

Yaroslav Vyklyuk

,

Milan Milenković

,

Darko B. Vuković

,

Nataliya Matsiuk

APPLICATION OF ADAPTIVE NEURO-FUZZY INTERFERENCE SYSTEM MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF FOREST FIRES IN THE USA ON THE BASIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY

ABSTRACT
In this research we search for a functional dependence between the occurrence of forest fires in the USA and the factors which characterize the solar activity. For this purpose we used several methods (R/S analysis, Hurst index) to establish potential links between the influx of some parameters from the sun and the occurrence of forest fires with lag of several days. We found evidence for a connection and developed a prognostic scenario based on the Adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) technique. This scenario allows the prediction between 79-93% of forest fires. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007]
KEYWORDS
forest fires, heliocentric hypothesis, Hurst index, ANFIS models, USA
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2015-02-10
PAPER REVISED: 2015-04-20
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2015-06-26
PUBLISHED ONLINE: 2015-07-03
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI150210093R
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2015, VOLUME 19, ISSUE Issue 5, PAGES [1649 - 1661]
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Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy interference system models for prediction of forest fires in the usa on the basis of solar activity

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