THERMAL SCIENCE

International Scientific Journal

ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEM MODELLING IN THE PROCESS OF THE POLICY DEVELOPMENT

ABSTRACT
Strategic planning and decision making, nonetheless making energy policies and strategies, is very extensive process and has to follow multiple and often contradictory objectives. During the preparation of the new Slovenian Energy Programme proposal, complete update of the technology and sector oriented bottom up model of Reference Energy and Environmental System of Slovenia (REES-SLO) has been done. During the redevelopment of the REES-SLO model trade-off between the simulation and optimisation approach has been done, favouring presentation of relations between controls and their effects rather than the elusive optimality of results which can be misleading for small energy systems. Scenario-based planning was integrated into the MESAP (Modular Energy System Analysis and Planning) environment, allowing integration of past, present and planned (calculated) data in a comprehensive overall system. Within the paper, the main technical, economic and environmental characteristics of the Slovenian energy system model REES-SLO are described. This paper presents a new approach in modelling relatively small energy systems which goes beyond investment in particular technologies or categories of technology and allows smooth transition to low carbon economy. Presented research work confirms that transition from environment unfriendly fossil fuelled economy to sustainable and climate friendly development requires a new approach, which must be based on excellent knowledge of alternative possibilities of development and especially awareness about new opportunities in exploitation of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.
KEYWORDS
PAPER SUBMITTED: 2012-01-09
PAPER REVISED: 2012-07-06
PAPER ACCEPTED: 2012-07-16
DOI REFERENCE: https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI120109120P
CITATION EXPORT: view in browser or download as text file
THERMAL SCIENCE YEAR 2012, VOLUME 16, ISSUE 3, PAGES [703 - 715]
REFERENCES
  1. Connolly, D., et al., The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland, Applied Energy, 88 (2011), pp. 502-507
  2. Weijermars, R., et al., Review of models and actors in energy mix optimization - can leader visions and decisions align with optimum model strategies for our future energy systems?, Energy Strategy Reviews, 1 (2012), pp. 5-18
  3. Al-Mansour, F., Merse, S., Tomsic, M., Comparison of energy efficiency strategies in the industrial sector of Slovenia, Energy, 28 (2003), pp. 421-440
  4. Jebaraj, S., Iniyanb, S., A review of energy models, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 10 (2006), pp. 281-311
  5. Hirematha, R.B., Shikhab, S., Ravindranathb, N.H., Decentralized energy planning; modelling an application—a review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11 (2007), pp. 729-752
  6. Pasicko, R., et al., Modelling CO2 Emissions Impacts on Croatian Power System, Thermal Science, 14 (2010), pp. 655-669
  7. Connolly, D., et al., A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems, Applied Energy, 87 (2010), pp. 1059-1082
  8. Anic Vucinic, A., et al., Greenhouse Gases Reduction through Waste Management in Croatia, Thermal Science, 14 (2010), pp. 681-691
  9. Biresselioglu, M. E., Demir, M.H., Kandemir, C., Modeling Turkey's future LNG supply security strategy, Energy Policy, 46 (2012), pp. 144-152
  10. Hamdan, H. A., Ghajar, R. F., Chedid, R.B., A simulation model for reliability-based appraisal of an energy policy: The case of Lebanon, Energy Policy, 45 (2012), pp. 293-303
  11. Avetisyan, M., Bayless, D., Gnuni, T., Optimal expansion of a developing power system under the conditions of market economy and environmental constraints, Energy Economics, 28 (2006), pp. 455-466
  12. Tomsic, M., et al., Integrated resource planning for the rational use of energy in Slovenia: Tools and models, Reaserch report, Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 1997
  13. OECD/International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives (in support of the G8 plan of action) - Scenarios & Strategies to 2050, International Energy Agency, France, 2008
  14. Swisher, J. N., Jannuzi, G.D.M., Redlinger, R. Y., Tools and Methods For Integrated Resource Planning: Improving Energy Efficiency and Protecting the Environment, UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Risø National Laboratory, Denmark, 1997
  15. US Agency for International Development, Integrated Resource Planning for Electicity: Best Practices Guide. The Tellus Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, 2000
  16. D'Sa, A., Integrated resource planning (IRP) and power sector reform in developing countries, Energy Policy, 33 (2005), pp. 1271-1285
  17. Schlenzig, C., PlaNet: A decision support system for energy and environmental planning (in German language: PlaNet: Ein entscheidungsunterstützendes System für die Energie - und Umweltplanung), Research report, IER - Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universität Stuttgart, Germany, 1998
  18. Cesen, M. et al.: Annual energy report 2008 (in Slovenian language: Letni energetski pregled 2008), Jozef Stefan Institute for Ministry of Economy, 2010
  19. Urbancic, A., et al., Green paper for Slovenian National Energy Program (in Slovenian language: Zelena knjiga za Nacionalni energetski program Slovenije), Jozef Stefan Institute for Ministry of Economy, Ljubljana, Slovenia, April, 2009
  20. Urbancic, A., et al., NEP 2010: Long Term Energy Balances 2010-2030: assumptions (in Slovenian language: Dolgoročne energetske balance 2010-2030: izhodišča), Jozef Stefan Institute for Ministry of Economy, 2011
  21. Urbancic, A., et al., NEP 2010: Long Term Energy Balances 2010-2030: results (in Slovenian language: Dolgoročne energetske balance 2010-2030: rezultati), Jozef Stefan Institute for Ministry of Economy, 2011
  22. OECD/International Energy Agency, Energy Policies of IEA Countries Italy 2009 Review, International Energy Agency, France, 2009
  23. Pohekar, S.D., Ramachandran, M., Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustsainable energy planning - A review, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 8 (2004), pp. 365-381
  24. Saaty, TL., Decision Making With The Analytic Network Process (ANP) And Its "Super-Decisions" Software The National Missile Defence (NMD) Example, ISAHP 2001, Berne, Switzerland, 2001
  25. Saaty, TL., Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process, Int. J. Services Sciences, 1 (2008), pp. 83-98
  26. Sadeghi, M., Ameli, A., An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran, Energy Policy, 45 (2012), pp. 24-32
  27. Hobbs, B., Energy Decisions and the Environment: A Guide to the Use of Multi-Criteria Methods, Springer, Germany, 2000
  28. Al Sayegh Petkovsek, S., et al., Ecological Remediation of the Sostanj Thermal Power Plant With Respect To Sustainable Development of the Salek Valley, Slovenia, Thermal Science, 14 (2010), pp. 773-782
  29. Gligoric, Z. M., et al., Simulation Model - Support to Investment Decision-Making in the Coal Industry, Thermal Science, 14 (2010), pp. 835-844
  30. Winzer, C., Conceptualizing energy security, Energy Policy, 46 (2012), pp. 36-48
  31. Michalena, E., Hills, J. M., Renewable energy issues and implementation of European energy policy: The missing generation?, Energy Policy, 45 (2012), pp. 201-216
  32. Gvozdenac-Urosevic, B., Energy Efficiency and Gross Domestic Product, Thermal Science, 14, (2010), pp. 799-808

© 2019 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International licence